ABD Dolar\u0131, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn ABD Senatosu\u2019ndaki oturumunun ard\u0131ndan genel olarak de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Warsh, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu ancak net bir politika sinyali vermedi; bu da faiz beklentilerinin (piyasada beklenen politika faizi patikas\u0131n\u0131n) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Oturum s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD Hazine tahvilleri ile dolar\u0131n ayn\u0131 anda sert sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir dalga ya\u015fanmad\u0131; Dolar sadece k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli hareketler g\u00f6sterdi ve bunlar \u00e7o\u011funlukla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fcyd\u00fc. Warsh\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, genel piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel hisse senetlerindeki (borsalardaki) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyir, dolar\u0131n toparlanma alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Mevcut risk ortam\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 99,0 seviyesine yeniden d\u00f6nmesi zor olabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 net bir y\u00f6n bulamazken, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden prim geliri elde etmeyi hedefleyen i\u015flem) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Dolar Endeksi haftalard\u0131r dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; EUR\/USD gibi ana paritelerde z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) bu \u00e7eyre\u011fin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Bu paritelerde strangle satmak (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim toplamak) risk i\u015ftah\u0131 sakin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim toplamak i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel engel, k\u00fcresel borsalardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f. S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn son bir ayda %2,5 artmas\u0131 ve VIX\u2019in (beklenen piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 15\u2019in alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak talebini azalt\u0131yor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesine e\u015flik etmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor; zira bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm piyasada bask\u0131n tema gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu tablo 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131ndaki piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; benzer \u015fekilde hisselerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, dolarda y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. DXY\u2019nin 99,0 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p kal\u0131c\u0131 olamamas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu seviyenin \u015fimdilik \u201ctavan\u201d (diren\u00e7: fiyat\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, zay\u0131f ya da bantta kalan dolardan faydalanan i\u015flemler\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak (emtia para birimleri: emtia fiyatlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 \u00fclkelerin paralar\u0131)\u2014daha temkinli bir tercih olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0\u015fimdi. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar, Warsh\u2019\u00fcn Senato\u2019da Fed ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgusuna ra\u011fmen y\u00f6n bulamad\u0131; faiz beklentileri sabit kald\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX DXY\u2019yi bantta tutuyor; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45245\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}