USD\/JPY yatay seyretti; sakin piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131nda yen, di\u011fer G10 (Geli\u015fmi\u015f 10 \u00fclke) para birimlerinin gerisinde kald\u0131. Fiyat hareketi 157,50\u2013160,50 band\u0131nda (konsolidasyon: fiyat\u0131n belirli bir aral\u0131kta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) kald\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/ivmesini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) yatayd\u0131; bu da ivmenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, Mart ay\u0131nda enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. G\u00f6zler, gelecek haftaki Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Mart T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Rapor, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi. FXStreet Insights Ekibi taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin yatay bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz; bu, 2025\u2019te benzer d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme benziyor. Net bir y\u00f6n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadede prim toplamak amac\u0131yla opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (opsiyon primi: opsiyonu satan\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,1\u2019e geriledi; bu da piyasan\u0131n sakin kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, prim toplamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa iron condor (ayn\u0131 vadede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli, bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rsa kazanan opsiyon stratejisi) uygun olabilir. Bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 165,50 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131) bir al\u0131m spread\u2019i satmay\u0131 (call spread: iki al\u0131m opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131) ve ayn\u0131 anda 161,00 alt\u0131na bir sat\u0131m spread\u2019i satmay\u0131 (put spread: iki sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan yap\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu pozisyon zaman de\u011ferinden (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin erimesi) ve paritenin BoJ karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi bu aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu sakin piyasadaki ana risk, yakla\u015fan BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r; toplant\u0131 belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Japonya\u2019da son \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,6 geldi. BoJ\u2019un daha fazla politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya parasal deste\u011fin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir sinyal, USD\/JPY\u2019de sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. B\u00f6yle bir hamleyi bekleyenler, uzun strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket olursa kazand\u0131r\u0131r) sat\u0131n almay\u0131 tercih edebilir; bu yap\u0131, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, bu t\u00fcr sakin d\u00f6nemlerin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sert ve beklenmedik hareketlerle sonland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda Hazine\/Finans Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri (piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla kur y\u00f6n verme) yenin bir anda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (dalgalanman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlar) i\u00e7eren i\u015flemler \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131 risk kontrol\u00fcyle y\u00f6netilmeli; resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale riski her zaman g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 157,50\u2013160,50 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; yen G10\u2019da zay\u0131f. D\u0131\u015f denge bozulurken g\u00f6zler Cuma T\u00dcFE ve BoJ\u2019da. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131kla iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; k\u0131r\u0131lma riskine strangle kalkan olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45243","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45243"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45243\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}