Rabobank stratejistlerine g\u00f6re \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni **stagflasyona** (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flarken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) itiyor. Banka, enflasyonun 2027\u2019ye kadar sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi tahminlerin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise 2026\u2019da sert yava\u015flay\u0131p 2027\u2019de devlet desteklerine ra\u011fmen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu durum **d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini** (ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcc\u00fc) bozuyor. Daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar, **reel geliri** (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gelir) azaltarak t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; \u015firket **k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131** s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve g\u00fcveni zay\u0131flatabilir. Destek paketleri de kamu maliyesi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Artan risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentileri, ayr\u0131ca politika faizinde art\u0131\u015f beklentileri uzun vadeli faizleri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Rabobank bu y\u0131l **politika faizinde** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli referans faizi) bir art\u0131\u015f varsayarken, piyasa iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. **10 y\u0131ll\u0131k EUR swap faizi** (faiz oran\u0131 takas\u0131; sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi i\u015flemlerdeki 10 y\u0131l vadeli g\u00f6sterge oran) \u015fubat sonundan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 **baz puan** (0,01 puan; 30 baz puan = 0,30 puan) y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut enerji fiyat\u0131 tahminleriyle enflasyonun 2026\u2019da ortalama %3,1 ve 2027\u2019de %2,5 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; toplamda enflasyon \u00f6nceki tahminlere k\u0131yasla 1,7 puan daha y\u00fcksek. B\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in 2025\u2019te %1,5, bu y\u0131l %0,6 ve gelecek y\u0131l %0,9 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Rabobank, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla normale d\u00f6nmesine dayal\u0131 daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 senaryonun art\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu, daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir senaryonun ise m\u00fcmk\u00fcn kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Riskler aras\u0131nda talepte sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, sanayinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 **kredi risk primi** (bor\u00e7lunun geri \u00f6dememe riskine kar\u015f\u0131 istenen ek getiri) ile **\u00fclke risk primi** (devlet tahvillerinde \u00fclkeye \u00f6zg\u00fc risk i\u00e7in ek getiri) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u015fu anda K\u00f6rfez\u2019de s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi stagflasyon \u015fokuyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. B\u00f6lge b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015ftan do\u011frudan etkileniyor. **Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131** (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor; bu seviye yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu tablo enflasyon tahminlerini y\u00fckseltirken, hanehalk\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esini ve \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi frenliyor.<\/p>\n
Eurostat\u2019\u0131n mart enflasyon verisi %3,4 ile beklenti \u00fcst\u00fc geldi ve 2026 ortalama enflasyonunun %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu durum ECB\u2019yi zor bir noktaya getiriyor: Zay\u0131flayan ekonomiye ra\u011fmen faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalabilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **faiz swap\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6demek** (faizler y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek swap pozisyonu) veya **Alman Bund vadeli kontrat\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon** almak (devlet tahvili fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7; faizler y\u00fckselince tahvil fiyat\u0131 genelde d\u00fc\u015fer) gibi.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirgin \u015fekilde bozuldu: Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in GSYH tahmini 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen %1,5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden %0,6\u2019ya iniyor. Bu zay\u0131flama, Almanya **IFO \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 Endeksi**nin (\u015firketlerin mevcut durum ve beklentilerine dayal\u0131 g\u00fcven g\u00f6stergesi) son veride 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki enerji krizi d\u00f6neminden bu yana en sert ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6stermesiyle de destekleniyor. Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, Euro Stoxx 50 gibi geni\u015f Avrupa hisse endekslerinde **k\u0131sa pozisyon** veya **koruyucu put opsiyonu** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 daha anlaml\u0131 k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Euro B\u00f6lgesi hisse piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en **VSTOXX** (volatilite endeksi; piyasadaki fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131r) 28 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir stres sinyali. **Kredi** ve **\u00fclke risk primi** geni\u015flemesi ihtimali (risk alg\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinin y\u00fckselmesi) s\u00fcrerken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla korunma g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki sava\u015f Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni stagflasyona s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor: enerji \u015foku enflasyonu 2027\u2019ye dek y\u00fcksek tutarken b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi 2026\u2019da sert yava\u015flat\u0131yor. Faizler, risk primleri ve piyasada korunma ihtiyac\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45241\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}