S&P 500, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir oturum ve \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin sona ermesine ra\u011fmen a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Ate\u015fkes bitince kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131; ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kal\u0131rken \u0130ran m\u00fczakereye girmedi.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne ba\u011flayan, petrol sevkiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) \u00e7evresinde daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc verdi\u011fi piyasay\u0131 rahatlatan mesajlar\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7ti. Haberlerde \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya yeniden d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik haz\u0131rl\u0131klardan da bahsedildi.<\/p>\n
Warsh oturumu \u00f6nceden fiyatlanmak yerine belirsizlik yaratt\u0131 ve seans i\u00e7inde piyasalar \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201da d\u00f6nd\u00fc (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse gibi riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p nakit, tahvil ve dolar gibi daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelmesi). \u0130kinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ise ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n
Daha sonra Donald Trump ate\u015fkesi tek tarafl\u0131 uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve piyasalar dakikalar i\u00e7inde yeniden \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131\u201dna ge\u00e7ti (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi). Dolar g\u00fcn sonunda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 korudu.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u0130ran ve ate\u015fkes uzatmalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin man\u015fetlerle piyasan\u0131n sert \u015fekilde gidip geldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. S&P 500, tek bir ba\u015fkanl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla dakikalar i\u00e7inde ters y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu, \u201cne sava\u015f ne bar\u0131\u015f\u201d senaryosunda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i fiyat hareketlerinde en belirleyici unsurun man\u015fet riski oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 jeopolitik gerilim bug\u00fcn yeniden belirginle\u015fiyor. Son haberler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda deniz unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, tanker trafi\u011finin de son iki haftada %10\u2019dan fazla yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz abluka benzeri bask\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim emtialara da yans\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ABD tipi ham petrol i\u00e7in ileri vadeli kontratlar) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX, S&P 500 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 10\u2019lu seviyelerden 21\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu, piyasan\u0131n olas\u0131 bir \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 koruma almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, vadeli i\u015flemlerle (futures, belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc veren kontratlar) tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak \u015fu anda \u00e7ok riskli. Bunun yerine yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar opsiyonlarla volatilite sat\u0131n almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin SPY veya QQQ \u00fczerinde \u201cat-the-money\u201d straddle (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyata yak\u0131n olan ayn\u0131 vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu + sat\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu) almak, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck harekette kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sa\u011flar; ani \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131\u201d ya da \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 korur.<\/p>\n
H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda hisse senedi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olanlar i\u00e7in korunma bu d\u00f6nemde daha kritik. Ana endekslerde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put opsiyonu (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak, sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 basit bir sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Put debit spread (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, kazan\u00e7 ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) de koruma maliyetini azalt\u0131rken riski netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik s\u00fcre\u00e7, ge\u00e7en ay T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3,2 ile beklentilerin biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesiyle birlikte, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2025\u2019te Warsh oturumunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131ya benzer \u015fekilde, enflasyondaki kat\u0131l\u0131k (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n kolay gerilememesi) oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran ek bir unsur. Dolar, Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da sessiz bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S&P 500 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi bitti, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de gerilim ve tanker trafi\u011finde yava\u015flama man\u015fet riski yaratt\u0131. Trump uzatmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc; VIX 21, WTI 92$. Opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45240"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45240\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}