Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Nisan\u2019da -20,6\u2019ya geriledi. \u00d6nceki veri -16,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Nisan verisi, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 4,3 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. Endeks s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin -20,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015fmesi, ekonomide bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu, 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; t\u00fcketicilerin harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla k\u0131sabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu destekleyen son verilerde Almanya\u2019da Mart 2026 fabrika sipari\u015fleri %1,2 azald\u0131. (Fabrika sipari\u015fleri: Sanayinin gelecekteki \u00fcretimine dair erken sinyal veren yeni sipari\u015f miktar\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Avrupa borsalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenir; \u00f6zellikle \u201ct\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d (zorunlu olmayan harcamalara dayal\u0131) sekt\u00f6r \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu ortamda Euro Stoxx 50 endeksinde olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (endeks d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, May\u0131s ve Haziran i\u00e7in \u201chedge\/korunma\u201d (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir. Benzer g\u00fcven verilerinin 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda %5\u2019lik bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesinden \u00f6nce geldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen savunmac\u0131 duru\u015fa benzer.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha temkinli bir dil kullanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir ve yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Son veride \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. (\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon: Enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon.) Buna ra\u011fmen politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcketici taraf\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k olabilir. Bu nedenle \u201cfaiz vadeli i\u015flemleri\u201dnde (gelecekteki faiz beklentilerine g\u00f6re fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD\u2019nin ise son raporda 230 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fma, euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. ECB ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika rotalar\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu da EUR\/USD paritesinde \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) kurma fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,05 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa \u201cvolatilitesi\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) y\u00fckselir. 2022 enerji krizinde t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ana oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi olan VSTOXX endeksinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftu. (VSTOXX: Euro Stoxx 50 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks.) Bu nedenle VSTOXX\u2019ta \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) veya vadeli i\u015flem almak, artan belirsizlikten faydalanman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri: Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Nisan\u2019da -20,6\u2019ya \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131 (-16,3\u2019t\u00fc). Harcamalarda fren, borsalarda bask\u0131 riski. ECB daha g\u00fcvercinle\u015febilir; euro zay\u0131flarken volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131, hedge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45237"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45237\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}