New York Post, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ve Pakistanl\u0131 kaynaklara dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ikinci turunun en erken Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131labilece\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim haber ajans\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131na hen\u00fcz karar vermedi\u011fini bildirdi. Fox News ise Beyaz Saray\u2019dan bir yetkilinin, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran ile ate\u015fkesi 3\u20135 g\u00fcn uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek 98,40 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Habere g\u00f6re bu geli\u015fmelerin piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde etkilemedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 ate\u015fkes ve ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme haberleri, 2010\u2019lar\u0131n sonundaki benzer d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u0130lk tepki sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de bu \u201csessizlik\u201d enerji piyasalar\u0131nda sert bir hareketten \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, biriken jeopolitik risk priminde (sava\u015f\/gerilim ihtimalinin fiyatlara ekledi\u011fi ekstra maliyet) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan etki ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Burada ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda benzer gerilimlerin petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksini (OVX: petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 izleyen endeks) %30\u2019un \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p, risk azal\u0131nca h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekti\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu tablo, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin piyasay\u0131 yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle Brent veya WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) \u00fczerinde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: spot fiyat\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131p prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplama stratejisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
Daha net bir y\u00f6n beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in ham petrol \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, \u201cbar\u0131\u015f primi\u201dne (gerilimin azalmas\u0131yla fiyatlar\u0131n geri gelmesi) kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 sert ama \u00e7o\u011fu zaman k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fcd\u00fcr. 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonras\u0131 fiyatlar %20 y\u00fckselip haftalar i\u00e7inde y\u00fckseli\u015fin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri vermi\u015fti. Diyalo\u011fun netle\u015fmesi, Brent\u2019i son d\u00f6nemdeki i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenli liman para birimleri (krizde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi; \u00f6r. \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131) de izlenmeli; \u015fimdilik belirgin tepki yok. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi art\u0131nca ABD dolar\u0131 ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 genelde g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyal gelirse, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 daha geni\u015f bir makro korunma amac\u0131yla DXY \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kritik dar ge\u00e7it) ya\u015fanan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir aksaman\u0131n petrolde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli %8 ralliye yol a\u00e7\u0131p, on i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7inde tamamen geri verilmesiyle de uyumlu. D\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019den fazlas\u0131 bu dar ge\u00e7itten ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, askeri tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi fiyatlar \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d etki (piyasay\u0131 rahatlatan, fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken etki) yarat\u0131r. Bu nedenle Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse petrol fiyat\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD-\u0130ran\u2019da ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme Cuma ihtimali g\u00fcndemde; Trump ate\u015fkesi uzatt\u0131. Piyasalar \u015fimdilik sakin, ancak petrol ve OVX\u2019te oynakl\u0131k sinyali var: \u201cbar\u0131\u015f primi\u201dyle Brent\/WTI geri \u00e7ekilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45236\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}