GBP\/USD \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3515 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda %0,06 y\u00fckseldi. Hareket, yeni Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verileri ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile ABD\u2019de para politikas\u0131na (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) dair g\u00fcncel de\u011ferlendirmelerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (ONS), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyatlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi) enflasyonunun mart ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini bildirdi. Bu veri beklentilerle uyumlu geldi ve \u015fubattaki %3 seviyesinden artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda (bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) enflasyon martta %0,7 artt\u0131. Bu, %0,6 tahmininin \u00fczerinde ve yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131ldaki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
22 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo, Mart 2025\u2019e g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu %3,3\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131yor, GBP\/USD 1,35\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyordu. Bu ortam, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn ise ONS\u2019nin son verileri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k CPI\u2019\u0131n %2,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini ve BoE\u2019nin hedefinin hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,3\u2019e g\u00f6re sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu nedenle piyasa, y\u0131l bitmeden BoE\u2019den en az iki faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise ekonomi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ederken son CPI verileri %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tutuyor (\u015fahin duru\u015f: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) ve olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini geciktiriyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, sterlin \u00fczerinde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 kuran temel etken.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma), genelde b\u00fcy\u00fck veri ve toplant\u0131lar \u00f6ncesi y\u00fckselir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, fiyat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketinden faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle almak (straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alarak y\u00f6n de\u011fil, hareket b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne oynamak) olas\u0131 bir bant k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon sa\u011flayabilir. Farkl\u0131 politika mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 \u201colay riski\u201d (toplant\u0131\/veri sonras\u0131 sert hareket riski) \u015fu an piyasay\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc bakanlar i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de daha kolay yol a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Sterlin \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu almak (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon), artan faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle olu\u015fabilecek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. \u201cBearish risk reversal\u201d kurulmas\u0131 da bu ortamda kullan\u0131labilir: daha pahal\u0131 put al\u0131p daha ucuz call satarak (risk reversal: ayn\u0131 vadede put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla finanse etmeye y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n beklentisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan bir strateji.<\/p>\n
Parite \u015fu anda 1,2450 civar\u0131nda; bu, bir y\u0131l kadar \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,35 seviyesine g\u00f6re keskin bir fark. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in 1,2300 ve 1,2250 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 putlarda y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest: kapat\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f opsiyon s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi say\u0131s\u0131) dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. BoE daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret ederse, bu seviyeler \u00f6nemli destekler olarak test edilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar 1,3515\u2019te s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselirken, ONS mart CPI\u2019\u0131 %3,3\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bug\u00fcn enflasyon %2,1\u2019e indi. BoE indirim, Fed \u015fahin: ayr\u0131\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131. Opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k, 1,23\u20131,225 putlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45232\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}