Commerzbank ekonomistleri Bernd Weidensteiner ve Christoph Balz, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olas\u0131 atanmas\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi. Warsh\u2019\u0131n, Fed\u2019in son d\u00f6nem politikas\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi\u011fini ve yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fini bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini beklemediklerini belirtiyorlar ve Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed\u2019in Donald Trump\u2019tan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (siyasi etkiden uzak karar alma kabiliyetini) koruyabilece\u011finden \u015f\u00fcphe duyuyorlar. Bunun, zamanla faiz indirimlerinin gere\u011finden h\u0131zl\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini ekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Warsh yak\u0131nda ba\u015fkan olursa, Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na uyup uymayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirsiz oldu\u011funu not ediyorlar. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f sonras\u0131 enflasyonun yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, bunun da %2 hedefine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc geciktirebilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Warsh\u2019\u0131n ilk haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi i\u00e7in destek bulmakta zorlanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Faizler de\u011fi\u015fmeden kal\u0131rsa, ba\u015fkandan bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini ekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in bir sonraki faiz ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru olaca\u011f\u0131 tahminlerini koruyorlar. Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed i\u00e7inde konumunu sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in zamana ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, yeni bir Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n faizleri \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 indirmesi i\u00e7in siyasi bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi ihtimalini ele alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Ana endi\u015fe, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisine odaklanman\u0131n orta vadede gere\u011finden sert (agresif) bir politika y\u00f6n\u00fcne yol a\u00e7mas\u0131yd\u0131. Bu durum, 2026\u2019da faizlerin izleyece\u011fi rota konusunda ciddi belirsizlik yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Zor bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00f6zellikle 2025\u2019te \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 enflasyon yeniden y\u00fckselince. 2022\u2019deki geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen enerji \u015foklar\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar y\u00fcksek kald\u0131 ve \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019yi (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) inatla %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde tuttu. Bu durum 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi verilerine kadar yans\u0131d\u0131 ve faiz indirimi i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir uzla\u015fmay\u0131 engelledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimine oynayan bahislerin hatal\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. SOFR vadeli i\u015flemler e\u011frisi (bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik faiz olan SOFR\u2019a dayal\u0131, piyasadaki faiz beklentisini g\u00f6steren vadeli fiyatlama), Haziran 2026\u2019ya kadar en az iki indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor olsa da son sekiz haftada belirgin bi\u00e7imde yatayla\u015ft\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede \u201cg\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201de (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131 politika de\u011fi\u015fimi) dayanan pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve \u201cy\u00fcksek daha uzun\u201d (faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) senaryosuna haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n enflasyonu ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fine dair iyimserlik hen\u00fcz verilere yans\u0131mad\u0131. 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fine ait son verimlilik verisi yaln\u0131zca %0,8\u2019lik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dezenflasyon (enflasyonun h\u0131z kesmesi) e\u011filimine i\u015faret edecek seviyelerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda. Bu da Fed\u2019in siyasi talepler ile inat\u00e7\u0131 ekonomik veriler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, opsiyon (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (dalgalanman\u0131n) s\u00fcrmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejilerde f\u0131rsat bulabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in temel yakla\u015f\u0131m, bu y\u0131l hi\u00e7 faiz indirimi olmamas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak. Uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanan\/koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) alman\u0131n, \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere (beklenenden daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika sinyali) kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor; bu beklentideki bir de\u011fi\u015fim sert olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019de Warsh d\u00f6nemi mi geliyor? Commerzbank, AI\u2019\u0131n enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k riskini vurguluyor; \u0130ran sonras\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, erken indirim zor, \u201cy\u00fcksek daha uzun\u201d senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45226\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}