GBP\/USD \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3515 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u0130ngiltere enflasyon verisi ve piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere ile ABD\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131) beklentilerini tartmas\u0131yla %0,06 y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyonun ana g\u00f6stergesi) martta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u015fubatta %3\u2019t\u00fc ve beklentiyle ayn\u0131 geldi.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,7 artt\u0131. Bu oran %0,6 beklentinin \u00fczerinde ve yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; %3,2 beklentisinin biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin enerji maliyetlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131, man\u015fet enflasyonu (genel enflasyon) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ise bir miktar yumu\u015fad\u0131. Bu durum, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) 30 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (benchmark rate: piyasaya y\u00f6n veren ana faiz) %3,75\u2019te sabit tutup tutmayaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de di\u011fer fiyat g\u00f6stergeleri de beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi. Girdi \u00dcretici Fiyatlar\u0131 (Input Producer Prices: \u00fcreticinin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ham madde\/enerji gibi girdilerin maliyeti) martta ayl\u0131k %4,4, y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,4 artt\u0131. Perakende fiyatlar (RPI benzeri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler: t\u00fcketici sepetine dayal\u0131 alternatif fiyat endeksi) ayl\u0131k %0,8, y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma e\u011filimi) etkiledi. \u0130ran\u2019la ilgili ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 haberleri ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019a ait gemilere y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken \u0130ran olas\u0131 misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar (t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesi) martta ayl\u0131k %1,7 artt\u0131; beklenti %1,4\u2019t\u00fc. \u015eubat verisi %0,7\u2019ye revize edildi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %4 oldu. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de nisan PMI verisi (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firketlerin faaliyet ve sipari\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren erken g\u00f6sterge) per\u015fembe, mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n \u00e7ekirdekte %3,1 ile daha yumu\u015fak seyir BoE\u2019ye faizi %3,75\u2019te tutmak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flar. Bu da Sterlin\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; piyasa yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tam fiyatlamayabilir. Benzer bir tablo 2023 sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, merkez bankas\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 ikinci plana at\u0131p altta yatan bask\u0131lar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 verilerle destek buluyor. ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bir ayda %1,7 artmas\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek. \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk de, dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p sermayeyi dolara y\u00f6nlendirebiliyor. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n se\u00e7ili para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) k\u00fcresel belirsizlik artarken %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer bir desen tekrar edebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131t bask\u0131lar nedeniyle GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 1,3600 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satarak de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, prim geliri (premium: opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bedel) toplarken BoE\u2019nin temkinli duru\u015fu ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ana izlenecek unsur oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyat hareketlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) olacak; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere PMI ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Tarihsel olarak GBP\/USD\u2019de 1 haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131n ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) \u00f6nemli veri ve merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda %20\u201330 artabiliyor. 30 Nisan karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken benzer bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Beklenen bu sert fiyat hareketini i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle almak uygulanabilir. Straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) ve strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte), y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Bu, piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fe do\u011frudan bir pozisyondur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar 1,3515\u2019te: \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karken \u00e7ekirdek %3,1\u2019de yumu\u015fad\u0131; BoE\u2019nin %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131 sterlini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u0130ran riski dolar\u0131 destekliyor; volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45223\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}