Mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi sonras\u0131, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu da son d\u00f6nemdeki enerji fiyat \u015fokunu yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Man\u015fet enflasyon (genel enflasyon) \u015fubatta %3,0 iken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Art\u0131\u015fta motor yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Enerji, g\u0131da, alkol ve t\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc d\u0131\u015flayan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7layan g\u00f6sterge) \u015fubatta %3,2 iken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1\u2019e geriledi; piyasa beklentisi %3,2 idi. Hizmet enflasyonu (kira, ula\u015f\u0131m, e\u011fitim gibi hizmet kalemlerindeki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) \u015fubatta %4,3 iken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; beklenti %4,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE verisinin ard\u0131ndan, \u0130ngiltere swap faiz e\u011frisi (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faizleri fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrev g\u00f6sterge) yukar\u0131 kayd\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 baz puan (0,50 y\u00fczde puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. BBH, ekonomideki at\u0131l kapasiteye (kullan\u0131lmayan \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fc\/i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc) ili\u015fkin tahminlere g\u00f6re BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n fazla agresif oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
BoE, 2026\u2019da GSYH\u2019nin (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) %1\u2019i kadar negatif \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (output gap: ekonominin kapasitesinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. BBH, GBP\/USD\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede 1,3400\u20131,3700 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini bekliyordu.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki de\u011ferlendirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na dair piyasa beklentilerinin fazla agresif oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. O d\u00f6nemde enflasyon %3,3 ile y\u00fcksekti ve swap piyasas\u0131 neredeyse 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu. Ekonomide belirgin at\u0131l kapasite oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bunun abart\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 BoE\u2019nin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar agresif olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6rse de, GBP\/USD i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,3400\u20131,3700 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Parite \u015fu anda \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede, 1,2550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun arkas\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere ekonomisine ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen kayg\u0131lar bulunuyor. Paritenin yatay kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; ancak yeni ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, GBP\/USD\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131\/de\u011fi\u015fken hareket etti\u011fi) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. BoE, yaz toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funda; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek bir durgunluk d\u00f6nemi yarat\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon sat\u0131p prim toplamak (opsiyon primi: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) cazip bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle 1,2400 ve 1,2700 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) GBP\/USD strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 vade i\u00e7in biri al\u0131m biri sat\u0131m olmak \u00fczere iki opsiyonu birlikte satma; fiyat dar bantta kal\u0131rsa kazand\u0131r\u0131r) beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yol olabilir. Bu i\u015flem, parite \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu aral\u0131kta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (time decay: vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonun de\u011ferinin erimesi) fayda sa\u011flar. BoE\u2019nin ihtiyatl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi bu strateji i\u00e7in bir dayanak olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz T\u00dcFE: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyon %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, hizmet enflasyonu %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Swaplar 50 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatlasa da BoE temkinli. Sterlin 1,2550; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilitede strangle sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45221\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}