Rabobank\u2019tan Michael Every, Avrupa\u2019da y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve jeopolitik gerilime dikkat \u00e7ekti; Druzhba boru hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kesintiye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ukrayna Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Zelenskiy, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2h \u00fczerinden Kazakistan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn Almanya\u2019ya ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Druzhba\u2019n\u0131n Rus petrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ta\u015f\u0131maya haz\u0131r olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Ukrayna i\u00e7in 90 milyar avroluk AB kredisinin onaylanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Fonlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ABD yap\u0131m\u0131 Patriot hava savunma sistemleri (uzun menzilli hava savunmas\u0131), \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Storm Shadow f\u00fczeleri (uzun menzilli seyir f\u00fczesi) ve Ukrayna \u00fcretimi \u0130HA\u2019lar (insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131) i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131 geli\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda, \u0130HA\u2019larla Rus petrol rafinerilerine sald\u0131r\u0131 iddialar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ayr\u0131ca, ihtilafl\u0131 Donbas b\u00f6lgesinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131na \u201cDonnyland\u201d ad\u0131n\u0131 vermeyi \u00f6nerdi\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda, Orta Do\u011fu ve Rusya kaynakl\u0131 arz\u0131n sava\u015ftan etkilenmesi g\u00fcbre arz\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda sert y\u00fckseli\u015f riski do\u011furdu. AB, ortak do\u011falgaz al\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 (\u00fclkelerin birlikte al\u0131m yaparak fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi hedefledi\u011fi sistem) yeniden ba\u015flatmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Hava yolu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131t k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; Br\u00fcksel \u201cyayg\u0131n iptal korkular\u0131n\u0131n abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtti. Lufthansa, jet yak\u0131t\u0131 tasarrufu i\u00e7in k\u00e2rs\u0131z buldu\u011fu 20 bin u\u00e7u\u015fu programdan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. AB milletvekilleri ise enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle Avrupa Parlamentosu\u2019nun Strasbourg\u2019a ayl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve Ukrayna kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik etkiler yeniden somutla\u015f\u0131yor. Avrupa do\u011falgaz vadeli i\u015flemleri\u2014\u00f6zellikle Hollanda TTF g\u00f6stergesi (Avrupa\u2019da referans kabul edilen do\u011falgaz fiyat\u0131)\u2014depolama endi\u015felerinin yeniden artmas\u0131yla son bir ayda %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseldi. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l i\u015faret edilen k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n tam giderilmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo Euro i\u00e7in zorlay\u0131c\u0131: y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flat\u0131rken enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131. Mart 2026 i\u00e7in Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonu (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir resmi enflasyon) %3,1 ile %2 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve ECB\u2019den (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu \u201cstagflasyon\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131 (zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon), Euro\u2019da y\u00f6n tahminini riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor ve piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu, Euro ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 varl\u0131klarda \u201cdalgalanmaya yat\u0131r\u0131m\u201d\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Euro Stoxx 50\u2019nin oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyen VSTOXX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (endeksin gelecekteki fiyat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zle\u015fme) uzun pozisyonlar, ECB politikas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e avantaj sa\u011flayabilir. Benzer \u015fekilde EUR\/USD\u2019de straddle almak (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fini bilmeden b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanma stratejisi), kurun iki y\u00f6nden birine sert hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te t\u0131rmanan Rus rafinerilerine y\u00f6nelik tehdit, i\u015flenmi\u015f petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye devam ediyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki uydu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri, enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131nda yeni hasar\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131; bu da Avrupa\u2019da motorin arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak motorin crack spread\u2019i (ham petrolden motorin \u00fcretiminde rafineri k\u00e2r marj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren fark) 18 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, bask\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131 halinde Euro\u2019da sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara d\u00f6n\u00fck, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak (out-of-the-money put; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran, maliyeti g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck opsiyon), portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak veya olumsuz bir \u015foka oynama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem sunar. Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik kal\u0131c\u0131 riskler, bu t\u00fcr savunmac\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 daha makul k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Enerji \u015foku Euro\u2019yu yeniden k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor! Druzhba kesintisi ve Ukrayna\u2019ya 90 milyar \u20ac\u2019luk AB kredisi jeopolitik riski art\u0131r\u0131rken, TTF %30+ s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; stagflasyonla Euro oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, opsiyonlar\/VSTOXX stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45220","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45220"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45220\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}