Piyasalar, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 konusunda ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Beklentiler, politika faizi olan repo faizinde ya de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 ya da 300 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; 1 baz puan = y\u00fczde 0,01) art\u0131\u015f \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. \u201cKoridor s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131\u201d da piyasada fiilen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (faiz koridoru: TCMB\u2019nin gecelik bor\u00e7 alma-verme faizlerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bant).<\/p>\n
Dezenflasyon (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) anlat\u0131s\u0131 ikna edici bulunmuyor; enflasyon sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut fiyat \u015fokundan \u00f6nce de var oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n, petrol fiyat \u015fokunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ko\u015fullar\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirmesini bekledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f dengelerin bozuldu\u011fu, bunun da T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 (TL\/TRY) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. TL kurunun yo\u011fun \u015fekilde y\u00f6netildi\u011fi (kurun piyasaya b\u0131rak\u0131lmay\u0131p m\u00fcdahalelerle y\u00f6nlendirilmesi) ifade ediliyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadede oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert de\u011fi\u015fme e\u011filimi) s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma olmamas\u0131, TL\u2019de daha sert sat\u0131\u015f riski ve ani d\u00fczeltme ihtimalinin y\u00fckselmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Swap limitleri (bankalar\u0131n\/kurumlar\u0131n swap i\u015flemleriyle d\u00f6viz pozisyonu alma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131; swap: iki taraf\u0131n belirli vadede para birimi\/faiz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi) ya da ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00f6viz gelirlerinin merkez bankas\u0131na sat\u0131lmas\u0131na dair zorunluluklar gibi \u00f6nlemlerin, para politikas\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yerini tutmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan TCMB karar\u0131, beklentileri ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcyor: faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131 ya da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir 300 baz puan art\u0131\u015f. Bu belirsizlik TL i\u00e7in gergin bir ortam yarat\u0131yor ve sonucu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici (kataliz\u00f6r: piyasay\u0131 h\u0131zla harekete ge\u00e7iren unsur) haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Dezenflasyon s\u00f6ylemi ikna edici g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor; son veriler, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun Mart 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 72\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca cari a\u00e7\u0131k (\u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz gelir-gider fark\u0131) \u015eubat\u2019ta yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyar dolara geni\u015fledi; bu, d\u0131\u015f dengenin bozuldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, TCMB\u2019nin karar\u0131n\u0131 daha da kritik k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda durumu daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu d\u0131\u015f \u015fok, zaten s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez g\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon e\u011filimini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Dezenflasyon plan\u0131n\u0131n bu \u015fok gelene kadar \u201cd\u00fczg\u00fcn i\u015fledi\u011fi\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kabul edilmiyor.<\/p>\n
2025 boyunca yap\u0131lan agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyonu belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir patikaya oturtmay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak \u015fimdi anlaml\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131lmamas\u0131, siyasi bask\u0131n\u0131n TCMB\u2019nin hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki piyasa kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. B\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmamas\u0131, s\u00fcrecin kontrol edilemedi\u011fi \u015feklinde yorumlanabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem (vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu \u201cya o ya bu\u201d (ikili) sonu\u00e7, USD\/TRY oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) zaten \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesinde; bu da gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Anlaml\u0131 bir politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 olmazsa, TL\u2019de daha sert sat\u0131\u015f riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yo\u011fun bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netilen kur, son d\u00f6nemde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yumu\u015fatm\u0131\u015f olabilir; ancak temel dengesizlikleri \u00e7\u00f6zemez. Politika ad\u0131m\u0131 gelmemesi halinde, daha ani ve d\u00fczensiz bir kur d\u00fczeltmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde artaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik TCMB karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi piyasa ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc: faiz sabit mi, 300 bp art\u0131\u015f m\u0131? Enflasyon %72+, cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; 95$+ Brent bask\u0131s\u0131yla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma gelmezse TL\u2019de sert sat\u0131\u015f ve volatilite riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45214\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}