Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), Hint rupisinde (INR) tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen geri ald\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, grup i\u00e7i i\u015flemlerde ve Teslimats\u0131z Vadeli \u0130\u015flem (NDF: vade sonunda d\u00f6vizin fiziki teslimi yerine nakit fark \u00f6demesiyle kapat\u0131lan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme) yoluyla kur riskinden korunmada (hedging: kur dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 risk azaltma) daha fazla esneklik sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi yay\u0131mlanan resmi genelgeye g\u00f6re RBI, mevcut s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin iptali ve vade uzat\u0131m\u0131 (rollover: s\u00f6zle\u015fmeyi kapatmadan yeni vadeye ta\u015f\u0131ma) dahil grup i\u00e7i i\u015flemlere izin verecek. Ayr\u0131ca bankalar\u0131n, d\u00f6viz (FX) s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinden kaynaklanan riski dengelemek i\u00e7in NDF piyasas\u0131nda \u201carka arkaya\u201d korunma i\u015flemleri yapmas\u0131na (back-to-back hedging: bir pozisyondaki riski ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde\/ters y\u00f6nde ikinci bir i\u015flemle n\u00f6trleme) olanak tan\u0131yacak.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7i teslimatl\u0131 piyasada (deliverable market: vade sonunda d\u00f6vizin teslim edildi\u011fi piyasa) bankalar\u0131n \u201cnominal net a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon\u201duna (net open position: bankan\u0131n kur hareketlerine a\u00e7\u0131k net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu) getirilen \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131rlar korunacak. Bankalar\u0131n grup ili\u015fkili taraflarla d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerinin (FX derivatives: kur \u00fczerinden de\u011ferlenen vadeli\/opsiyon gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) tamam\u0131n\u0131 yapmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlar da devam edecek.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nlemler ge\u00e7en ay devreye al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri rupi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Ge\u00e7en ay 1 dolar ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 seviyesindeki tarihi diplerden toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen rupi, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana b\u00f6lgesel benzer para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f. 2013\u2019te kullan\u0131lan di\u011fer ara\u00e7lar da masada: alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131na k\u0131s\u0131tlama (gold import curbs: d\u00f6viz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama), bor\u00e7 giri\u015flerini te\u015fvik eden d\u00fczenlemeler (debt flows concessions: tahvil\/bor\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak kolayl\u0131klar), \u00f6zel bir yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerle\u015fik mevduat kanal\u0131 (non-resident deposit facility: d\u00f6viz \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 yerle\u015fiklere y\u00f6nelik mevduat \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc) ve son se\u00e7enek olarak para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (policy tightening: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve benzeri ad\u0131mlar).<\/p>\n
Rupi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 97,50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bunda, ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte GSYH\u2019nin %2,8\u2019ine \u00e7\u0131kan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n (current account deficit: \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve gelir-gider dengesindeki a\u00e7\u0131k) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi etkili oldu. Buna ek olarak, yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (foreign portfolio outflows: yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse\/tahvil sat\u0131p para \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131) s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde Hindistan piyasalar\u0131ndan 4 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Sonu\u00e7 olarak USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseliyor; bu da piyasada daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, ani d\u00fczenleyici de\u011fi\u015fiklik riskinin fiyatlamaya dahil edilmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. RBI\u2019nin daha \u00f6nceki m\u00fcdahalelerden kalan ara\u00e7lar\u0131 bulunuyor. NDF ile korunma ve grup i\u00e7i i\u015flemler i\u00e7in bir miktar esneklik geri gelse de net a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 temel k\u0131s\u0131t olmaya devam ediyor. Bu tablo, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve tek tarafa y\u0131\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlardan (speculative positions: korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011fil, fiyat y\u00f6n\u00fcne bahis niteli\u011findeki i\u015flemler) ka\u00e7\u0131nan daha temkinli stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc RBI bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar\u0131 bozacak ad\u0131mlar atabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Rupideki zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcrerse ek ad\u0131mlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu kapsamda alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131na k\u0131s\u0131tlama veya d\u00f6viz giri\u015fini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00f6zel yabanc\u0131 yerle\u015fik mevduat imkanlar\u0131 gibi uygulamalar devreye al\u0131nabilir. B\u00f6yle ad\u0131mlar, piyasadaki d\u00f6viz likiditesini (liquidity: al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131n fiyat\u0131 \u00e7ok oynatmadan yap\u0131labilme kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131) ve t\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBI, rupide tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 frenleyen d\u00f6viz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen gev\u015fetti: grup i\u00e7i i\u015flemlerde iptal\/rollover ve NDF\u2019de back-to-back hedging serbest. Net a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}