Rabobank stratejisti Michael Every, \u0130ran gerilimine ili\u015fkin temel senaryosunu H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na \u00e7evirdi. Senaryo, 2\u20134 hafta s\u00fcrecek bir kapanmay\u0131; bu s\u00fcre boyunca petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda aksama ve Asya\u2019da fiziki (spot, yani an\u0131nda teslim) petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Notta, tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme giri\u015fimlerinin ters tepebilece\u011fi ve yeni bir t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fi riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu durumun, kapanma s\u00fcresince enerji arz\u0131nda daha fazla hasara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Raporda, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik \u201cekonomik abluka\u201ds\u0131 ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019e y\u00f6nelik \u201cabluka\u201ds\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin denizde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen \u201cEconomic Fury\u201d operasyonunu ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ise devam eden bir ablukay\u0131 k\u0131rmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Rabobank, ABD\u2019nin ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ekrandaki (vadeli i\u015flemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen) petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a Asya\u2019da fiziki petrol ve rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn (benzin, dizel gibi) fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesinin beklendi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Analizde olas\u0131 jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1956 S\u00fcvey\u015f Krizi\u2019yle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 (hisse, tahvil, d\u00f6viz gibi) farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde etkileyebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni temel senaryomuz, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iki ila d\u00f6rt hafta kapanmas\u0131; bunun da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bozmas\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol bu dar ge\u00e7itten (bo\u011faz gibi trafi\u011fin s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) ge\u00e7iyor; bu da k\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine denk geliyor. Uzayan her engelleme, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan yukar\u0131 iter. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir arz kesintisi d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re pozisyon almak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, riskin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; yani opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 muhtemel. WTI\u2019a k\u0131yasla Orta Do\u011fu arz rotalar\u0131na daha do\u011frudan ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in Brent ham petrolde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call\u2019\u0131 birlikte al\u0131p\/satarak risk-getiri profilini s\u0131n\u0131rlama) de\u011ferlendirilmeli. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: petrol fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00f6stergesi) 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; askeri t\u0131rmanma riski y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a daha da y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin ekrandaki fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle Asya\u2019da fiziki piyasan\u0131n ciddiyetini yans\u0131tmayabilece\u011fi not ediliyor. Fiziki varil priminin (spot fiyat\u0131n vadeli fiyata g\u00f6re ek bedeli) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede arz\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131n ima etti\u011finden \u00e7ok daha s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, fiziki-vadeli fark\u0131 (spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
1956 S\u00fcvey\u015f Krizi\u2019nde kilit bir su yolunun kapanmas\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda sert ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f; etkiler k\u00fcresel ekonomiye yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu tarihsel benzerlik, a\u011f\u0131r bir enerji \u015fokunun k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi vurabilece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak, daha geni\u015f hisse endekslerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 (hedge: zarar riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ablukay\u0131 k\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck askeri t\u0131rmanma riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ve bu da istikrars\u0131z bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Do\u011frudan deniz \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalini i\u00e7eren haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrol ve di\u011fer varl\u0131klarda sert ve ani hareketlere neden olabilir. Oynakl\u0131kta k\u0131sa pozisyon (volatility short: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 artarsa zarar yazan strateji) ta\u015f\u0131mak, tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair net bir yol g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar son derece riskli.<\/p>\n
2025 sonundaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131nda, birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %5\u20137\u2019lik ge\u00e7ici fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut senaryo \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r ve uzun s\u00fcreli; bu da daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir piyasa tepkisinin makul oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, g\u00f6rmezden gelinecek k\u0131sa vadeli bir olay de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Rabobank, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn 2\u20134 hafta kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 baz al\u0131yor. Asya spot petrol\/\u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 t\u0131rmanabilir; OVX y\u00fckseliyor. Brent\u2019te call stratejileri, fiziki-vadeli spread f\u0131rsat\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45209\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}