AUD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 114,10 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeye istekli olabilece\u011fine dair \u201cbaz\u0131 i\u015faretler\u201d ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen haberin ard\u0131ndan 114,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bloomberg ayr\u0131ca ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde somut ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar ate\u015fkesi uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Abluka, ikinci tur m\u00fczakerelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin ard\u0131ndan devreye al\u0131nd\u0131. \u0130ran ordusu, Trump\u2019\u0131n tehditleri sonras\u0131 \u00f6nceden belirlenen hedeflere sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulanan ablukay\u0131 deniz ticaretini k\u0131s\u0131tlamak i\u00e7in Donanma\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 30\u2019dan fazla \u00fclkeden planlamac\u0131lar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma planlar\u0131n\u0131 ilerletmek ve operasyonel ayr\u0131nt\u0131larda uzla\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcnden itibaren Londra\u2019da iki g\u00fcn boyunca bulu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerken AUD\/JPY\u2019deki kazan\u00e7lar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88,30 dolar seviyesine indi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat\u0131, yedinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %11,7 artt\u0131; beklenti %11 idi. D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 667 milyar yen olurken piyasa beklentisi 1.106 milyar yen seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi, \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131\u201dn\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) art\u0131ran bir ortam yarat\u0131yor ve bu durum Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Ancak ABD Hazine cephesinden gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili mesajlar, s\u00fcrecin hen\u00fcz netle\u015fmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle AUD\/JPY\u2019nin 114,00 \u00fczerindeki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilir; olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanabilir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) 2025 boyunca sert duru\u015fu da (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131) unutulmamal\u0131. Banka, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ortalama %3,5 civar\u0131nda seyreden kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyede tuttu. Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d politika (faiz art\u0131rmaya\/ y\u00fcksek faizi korumaya e\u011filimli tutum) Avustralya dolar\u0131na destek veriyor. Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel gerilimlerde ger\u00e7ek bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta Japon Yeni, WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesinden destek buluyor; bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek fiyatlar sonras\u0131 Japonya gibi enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in olumlu. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikalarda normalle\u015fme sinyali verse de bunu daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; banka 2024\u2019te negatif faizi (faizin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nem) sonland\u0131rd\u0131ktan sonra da \u00e7ok temkinli kald\u0131. Net bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar Yen, enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ve k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131na (piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\/g\u00fcvenli olmayan varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelimi) duyarl\u0131 kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikte, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 belirli bir y\u00f6n\u00fc tahmin etmek yerine oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmas\u0131) faydalanan stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u201cStraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak) AUD\/JPY\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket olursa, y\u00f6n do\u011fru tahmin edilmese bile kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Jeopolitik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n bu kadar \u201ciki u\u00e7lu\u201d (ya \u00e7ok olumlu ya \u00e7ok olumsuz) oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde bu daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha net y\u00f6n beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in AUD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, olumlu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlan\u0131rken zarar\u0131 primle s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Son veriler Japonya ihracat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; son a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7eyrekte art\u0131\u015f %12,1\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 s\u0131k s\u0131k beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalabiliyor. Bu tablo Yen\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131 s\u00fcrerse AUD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak hesapl\u0131 ama riskli bir tercih olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY 114,10\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n deniz ablukas\u0131nda gev\u015feme sinyali risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Yen\u2019i destekliyor. RBA \u015fahin, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm k\u0131r\u0131lgan; opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45208\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}