ABD 500 endeksi, Nisan ay\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131, ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131 seyretmesiyle y\u00fckseldi. Hareketin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli (large-cap) b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri ve yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015firketler oldu. Ancak enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyri s\u00fcrd\u00fc, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131yd\u0131 (faizler y\u00fcksek ve finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 zor).<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, petrol ve oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanma e\u011filimi) \u00fczerinden fiyatlara yans\u0131yan sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 \u201crisk primini\u201d (belirsizlik i\u00e7in ek fiyatlama) azaltt\u0131; bu da risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. \u015eirket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na dair beklentiler de y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekledi. Tahvil faizleri artmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ciro (revenue), k\u00e2r marj\u0131 (margin) ve \u015firketlerin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck tahmini\/mesajlar\u0131na (guidance) odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Makro veriler, \u201csert ini\u015f\u201dten (hard landing: ekonominin h\u0131zla daralmas\u0131) \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin devam\u0131na i\u015faret etti; bu da k\u00e2r tahminlerini destekledi. Son enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 k\u0131smen enerji kaynakl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n genelle\u015fip genelle\u015fmeyece\u011fi izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Grafikte fiyat, 6.744 civar\u0131ndaki %61,8 geri \u00e7ekilme (retracement: \u00f6nceki hareketin belirli oran\u0131n\u0131 geri alma seviyesi) seviyesinin \u00fczerine toparland\u0131 ve 7.011 direncini a\u015ft\u0131. Endeks 7.107 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (weighted moving average: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) ve Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n orta \u00e7izgisinin (fiyat\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) \u00fczerindeydi. PPO (Percentage Price Oscillator: iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n y\u00fczdesi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) pozitif kald\u0131 ve Bollinger Band\u0131 Geni\u015fli\u011fi (Bollinger Band Width: bantlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p daralmas\u0131; oynakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nemli seviyeler: 7.201 ve 7.443 diren\u00e7; 7.011 ve 6.744 destek. 7.011 korunursa k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca riskler: petrol, tahvil getirileri (yields: faiz), jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, Fed\u2019in mesajlar\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan makro veriler.<\/p>\n
Keskin y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131, savunmac\u0131 duru\u015ftan temkinli iyimser bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma ge\u00e7iyoruz. ABD 500\u2019de 7.011 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi) pozisyonlar i\u00e7in ana sinyal. K\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda hareketin 7.201 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine uzama ihtimali.<\/p>\n
Bu iyimserli\u011fi, ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden veriler ve piyasa korkular\u0131ndaki azalma destekliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin VIX\u2019in (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; opsiyonlardan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k) Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda 22 \u00fczerindeki zirvelerden 15 civar\u0131na gerilemesi, jeopolitik risk priminin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2,1\u2019de kalmas\u0131 ve son T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) %3,4 gelmesi, \u201ckorkulandan iyi\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor: bu tablo resesyon de\u011fil, yava\u015flama sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak birka\u00e7 haftaya g\u00f6re daha cazip h\u00e2le geldi. K\u0131sa vadeli vadelerde (expiry: vade sonu) 7.201 hedefiyle strateji d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; 7.011 seviyesi \u201cson s\u0131n\u0131r\u201d (line in the sand: bozulma noktas\u0131) olarak kullan\u0131labilir. 7.011 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda nakit teminatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (cash-secured put: hisseyi almak i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak put satmak) satmak da prim (premium: opsiyon geliri) toplayarak bu yap\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131tman\u0131n bir yolu.<\/p>\n
Ralli k\u0131r\u0131lgan; petrol veya tahvil faizlerinden gelebilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri y\u00f6netmek gerekir. Jeopolitik bir gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli \u201czarar-d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ile korunma (hedge) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Ayr\u0131ca do\u011frudan call almak yerine bo\u011fa call spread (bull call spread: bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) kullanmak, yeni y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u015flemlerinde riski daha net s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Bollinger Band\u0131 Geni\u015fli\u011fi\u2019ndeki art\u0131\u015f, yeni bir y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6neme i\u015faret edebilir; ayn\u0131 zamanda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 riskini de art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu nedenle \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 veya Fed konu\u015fmalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. Enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 7.011\u2019deki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m noktas\u0131na geri \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD 500\u2019de ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: jeopolitik risk primi ve VIX gerilerken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bilan\u00e7olar endeksi AI\/large-cap \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 7.011 \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; hedef 7.201, risk petrol-tahvil-Fed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45207\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}