USD\/JPY, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,70 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fan zirveden gerileyerek Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 159,00 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin ge\u00e7ici olarak uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim riskleri ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geciktirebilece\u011fi beklentisi Japon Yeni \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Bu unsurlar paritenin 159,00 \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131na destek verdi.<\/p>\n
1 saatlik grafikte fiyat, ge\u00e7en haftaki 157,60 civar\u0131ndaki dipten y\u00fckseli\u015fin %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve 100 periyotluk EMA\u2019dan (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama) tepki verdi. MACD (hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hafif alt\u0131na inerken RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi) 48 civar\u0131nda kalarak n\u00f6tr ile hafif zay\u0131f bir ivmeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli destekler %23,6 d\u00fczeltme seviyesi olan 159,15 ve 100 periyotluk EMA olan 159,07 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 158,85 (%38,2), ard\u0131ndan 158,60, 158,36 ve 158,01 seviyeleri; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taban olarak da 157,57\u2019deki dip takip ediliyor.<\/p>\n
159,00\u2019a do\u011fru son geri \u00e7ekilmenin, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 haberine ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu geri \u00e7ekilme, ana trendin bozulmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ok yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin politika faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) geni\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekliyor. Mart ABD enflasyonu %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011finden Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan BoJ\u2019un Tankan anketi (Japonya\u2019da \u015firketlerin g\u00fcven ve beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketi) i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveninde dalgalanmaya i\u015faret ederek yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n uzak olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik 160,00 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 159,00 deste\u011finin beklenmedik \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlar; parite yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7erse yukar\u0131 hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
158,60\u2019a kadar uzanan desteklerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, bu seviyelerin alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) satmak prim (opsiyonu satarken tahsil edilen \u00fccret) toplamak i\u00e7in bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,5 seviyesinde oldu\u011fundan al\u0131nan prim bir tampon sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131 (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonun de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) ile kazan\u00e7 hedefler; ancak kilit desteklerin korunmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159,70 zirvesinden 159,00\u2019a \u00e7ekildi: Dolar talebi ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski ve BoJ gecikmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; teknik destekler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, 160 \u00fcst\u00fc call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45202"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45202\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}