Alibaba hissesi son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 180 seviyesinden sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bir **fiyat kanal\u0131n\u0131n** (fiyat\u0131n iki paralel \u00e7izgi aras\u0131nda gidip geldi\u011fi bant) alt \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, genelde bir **A\u2013B\u2013C d\u00fczeltmesi**nden (\u00fc\u00e7 a\u015famal\u0131 \u201cd\u00fczeltme\u201d geri \u00e7ekilmesi) \u00e7ok, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir **3. dalga (impulsif\/wave-three)** hareketine (Elliott Dalga yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda ana trend y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen, en sert ve en h\u0131zl\u0131 dalga) uyabilir.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi geldi ancak fiyat h\u00e2l\u00e2 140\u2013145 band\u0131nda, \u00f6nceki **sal\u0131n\u0131m (swing) seviyeleri** (fiyat\u0131n daha \u00f6nce d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ara tepe\/dip b\u00f6lgeleri) nedeniyle bask\u0131lan\u0131yor. 140\u2013145 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir sonraki hamle i\u00e7in kritik \u201ckarar b\u00f6lgesi\u201d.<\/p>\n
Fiyat bu b\u00f6lgeden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6ner ve 130\u2019un alt\u0131na iner ise, sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden kontrol\u00fc ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Bu da Temmuz 2025\u2019ten gelen \u00f6nemli bir **destek** (al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc durdurabilen seviye) olan 104\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7ar.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k fiyat 157\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine d\u00f6nebilir. 130 alt\u0131 ya da 157 \u00fcst\u00fc net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m gelene kadar yap\u0131 belirsiz.<\/p>\n
Alibaba fiyat\u0131 140\u2013145 b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00f6n ararken, yakla\u015fan harekete y\u00f6nelik **opsiyon** stratejileri g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Opsiyon, belirli bir vadeye kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma ya da satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir. Son \u00fc\u00e7 aydaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, **momentumun** (fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131 ve y\u00f6n\u00fc) \u015fu an piyasada belirleyici oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu karars\u0131zl\u0131k da bir sonraki net k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in kritik sinyal 130\u2019un alt\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, Temmuz 2025\u2019teki 104 deste\u011fine yak\u0131n bir **kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike)** hedeflenerek **put opsiyonu** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan, satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131nabilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, \u00c7in\u2019in Mart 2026 **sanayi \u00fcretimi**nin (fabrikalar\u0131n\/\u00fcretimin toplam \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131) y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1 ile beklenti olan %4,5\u2019in alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 da destekliyor; bu tablo daha zay\u0131f bir ekonomik zemine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, fiyat 157\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. Bu durumda **call opsiyonu** (fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan, alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, Alibaba\u2019n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 dijital ticaret biriminde Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019te biten \u00e7eyrekte gelirin y\u0131ll\u0131k %22 artmas\u0131 da destekliyor; bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcr\u00fcyor olabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n belirsizken, en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m bir **volatilite** (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) stratejisi olabilir. Mevcut fiyata yak\u0131n seviyede hem call hem put alarak **uzun straddle** kurulabilir; ama\u00e7, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket yapmas\u0131 durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamakt\u0131r. \u015eirketin bir sonraki **finansal sonu\u00e7\/kar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 (earnings call)** \u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde beklenirken, **z\u0131mni volatilite** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu stratejiyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, hissenin 130\u2013157 band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa **iron condor** sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan seviyelerden call ve put sat\u0131p **opsiyon primi** (opsiyonu satan\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamaya dayan\u0131r; hisse bu aral\u0131kta kald\u0131k\u00e7a kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar. Alibaba\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir bile\u015feni oldu\u011fu **Hang Seng Tech Endeksi** de son ay benzer \u015fekilde yatay davranarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019lik dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alibaba\u2019da kritik e\u015fik: 140\u2013145 \u201ckarar b\u00f6lgesi\u201d. Kanal k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, 3. dalga riski masada. 130 alt\u0131 104 deste\u011fine yol a\u00e7abilir; 157 \u00fcst\u00fc trendi d\u00f6nd\u00fcrebilir. Opsiyonda straddle\/condor g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45201\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}