ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, Tahran\u2019\u0131n yeni m\u00fczakere turunu reddetmesi sonras\u0131 t\u0131kand\u0131 ve ikinci tur yap\u0131lmad\u0131. ABD, ate\u015fkes takvimini uzatarak, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler resmen sona erene kadar ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkesi y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte tutuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 (limanlara giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiilen engelleyen deniz ve lojistik k\u0131s\u0131tlama) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 durdurmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Durum, uzun s\u00fcren bir bilek g\u00fcre\u015fi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; abluka bask\u0131 arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131rken daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 askeri t\u0131rmanma riski de g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kesinti riskleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Haziran vadeli Brent ham petrol, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f makro piyasalar (genel ekonomi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131) g\u00f6rece sakin. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 98,4 civar\u0131nda, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi (10 y\u0131l vadeli devlet tahvilinin getirisi) ise %4,3 seviyesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, benzer \u015fekilde enerji odakl\u0131 gerilimlerde i\u015flem yapmaya y\u00f6nelik bir \u201coyun plan\u0131\u201d sunuyor. D\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri h\u00e2l\u00e2 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7erken, yeni bir gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Brent veya WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (belirli bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden belirleyen kontratlar) en yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden yararlanma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Benzer ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerde CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX: ham petrolde fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu da \u201cvolatiliteyi uzun\u201d ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazanmay\u0131) do\u011frudan bir strateji haline getirir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kan ana ders, korkunun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yd\u0131: S&P 500 Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: ABD hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) petrol piyasas\u0131 gerilirken bile 20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu durum \u201cg\u00f6reli de\u011fer\u201d i\u015flemini (iki varl\u0131k aras\u0131nda farktan kazan\u00e7) i\u015faret ediyor: petrol volatilitesinde uzun \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438syon al\u0131rken, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri veya opsiyon stratejileriyle (spread: birden fazla opsiyonun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131) S&P 500 volatilitesini satmak. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalan\u0131r ve risk primini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ekstra risk i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi getiri) enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcyle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
O d\u00f6nemde ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin ve DXY\u2019nin istikrarl\u0131 seyri de \u00f6nemli bir sinyal veriyor. Tahvil piyasas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enflasyon tehdidini ya da k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015fokunu hemen fiyatlamad\u0131; gerilimi y\u00f6netilebilir bir arz taraf\u0131 sorunu (\u00fcretim\/ta\u015f\u0131ma kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131) olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesel bir enerji geriliminin \u00f6tesine t\u0131rmanmad\u0131k\u00e7a, dolar\u0131 otomatik olarak \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d diye almakta (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde dolara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f) temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kritik e\u015fik: ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kand\u0131, ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes uzad\u0131. ABD ablukayla \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski Brent\u2019i 100 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yor. Strateji: petrol volatilitesinde long, VIX\u2019te short.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45199\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}