Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (girdi, ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim, mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f) martta %4,4 artt\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi %2,8\u2019di.<\/p>\n
Mart verisi beklentinin 1,6 puan \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu, \u00fcreticilerin girdi maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki \u00fcreticilerin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 girdi maliyetlerini ifade eder. Bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fimi, mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131rmadan (yani y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6nemsel etkileri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmadan) a\u00e7\u0131klar.<\/p>\n
Martta %4,4\u2019l\u00fck girdi \u00dcFE, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz ve fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (\u00fcretim a\u015famas\u0131nda) enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n) ard\u0131ndan maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) planlanan faiz indirimlerini ertelemesi ve daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha istekli, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir tutum benimsemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131n\u0131 (short) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. SONIA, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de gecelik faizin referans g\u00f6stergesidir; vadeli kontratlar (futures) ise gelecekteki faiz beklentisine g\u00f6re fiyatlan\u0131r. Bu pozisyon, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiyatlardan geri \u00e7ekmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r. Faiz swap piyasas\u0131 (sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi piyasa) zaten tepki verdi; y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indirerek fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu oran, ge\u00e7en hafta fiyatlanan %80 seviyesinden sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, sterlin i\u00e7in destekleyici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r (tailwind) olabilir. GBP\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131, 1,2900 seviyesinin \u00fczerine bir hareketi hedefleyerek de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu (CFTC) verileriyle de destekleniyor: spek\u00fclatif net uzun (net-long: al\u0131m pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131mlardan fazla olmas\u0131) sterlin pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hisseleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu geli\u015fme olumsuz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 (marjlar\u0131n\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. Olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla FTSE 100 endeksinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 2025\u2019te benzer enflasyon s\u00fcrprizlerinde, faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin olumsuz tepki verdi\u011fini ve FTSE 250\u2019nin bir seferinde bir haftada %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili taraf\u0131nda (tahvil piyasas\u0131), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k devlet tahvili (gilt) getirilerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Uzun vadeli gilt vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc en do\u011frudan \u015fekilde yans\u0131t\u0131r. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt faizi bu haberle 12 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, 0,01%) artarak %4,38\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelerin yeniden test edilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok \u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi: \u0130ngiltere girdi \u00dcFE martta %4,4 artarak %2,8 beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131 BoE\u2019nin faiz indirimini erteletebilir; SONIA shorts, GBP\/USD call, FTSE put ve gilt sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45192\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}