USD\/CAD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 1,3655 civar\u0131nda geriledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim, emtia (\u00f6zellikle petrol) fiyatlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ilerleyene kadar ate\u015fkesi uzataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u0130ran\u2019a giden ve \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen gemilere y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 (gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015fini engellemeyi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bir Beyaz Saray yetkilisi, ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in Pakistan ziyaretinin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken bu durum Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kanada \u00f6nemli bir petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f genellikle para birimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n
ABD perakende verileri (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ma\u011faza ve internet \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalar) ABD dolar\u0131na destek verdi. ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Mart ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131; \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki %0,7\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n (\u00f6nceki %0,6\u2019dan yukar\u0131 revize edildi\u2014yani ge\u00e7mi\u015f veri g\u00fcncellendi) ard\u0131ndan geldi ve %1,4 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar Mart\u2019ta %4,0 y\u00fckseldi. Bu oran, \u015eubat\u2019ta kaydedilen %4,0 ile ayn\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda klasik bir \u00e7eki\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: ABD\u2019den gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel veriler (ekonomi g\u00f6stergeleri) ile Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan jeopolitik riskler kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Mart ay\u0131na ait g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, ABD ekonomisinin h\u0131z kesmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da normalde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcren abluka, ham petrol\u00fc y\u00fcksek tutuyor ve bu durum Kanada dolar\u0131na (piyasa jargonunda \u201cloonie\u201d) do\u011frudan yar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol cephesi kritik. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi referans ham petrol) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin stok verisi), 3 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrpriz stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (envanter azalmas\u0131) g\u00f6sterdi; bu, beklentiden \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gerileme ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi nedeniyle arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 (olumlu etki) yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) perakende sat\u0131\u015flardaki y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,0\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyecek. Ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan, bu tablo yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir duru\u015fa (enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) kap\u0131y\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, USD\/CAD paritesinde 1,3600 civar\u0131nda bir taban (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye) olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik nedeniyle USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; 1 ay vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde son d\u00f6nemde %8,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejilerin cazip olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Haziran vadeli opsiyonlarla uzun straddle veya strangle (biri ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, di\u011feri farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonlar\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklenir, y\u00f6n belirsizdir) kurmak, petrol \u015foku veya ABD verilerinin mevcut banttan kopu\u015f yaratmas\u0131 halinde f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in opsiyonlarla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (zarar\u0131n ba\u015ftan belli olmas\u0131) pozisyon almak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 \u201cpetrol primi\u201dnin (risk nedeniyle fiyata eklenen pay) daha da artaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d CAD al\u0131m opsiyonu (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyeden uzakta; daha ucuz ama ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket isteyen opsiyon) almak, USD\/CAD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma yolu olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019deki ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131r basaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler, CAD al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i satmay\u0131 (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda iki opsiyonla kurulan strateji; prim toplar, olas\u0131 kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 2025 yaz\u0131nda gerilim ilk t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama endi\u015feleri etkiyi s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ortam farkl\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD ekonomisinin temel g\u00fcc\u00fc daha net. Bu nedenle sert bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak ve ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ili\u015fkilerin (korelasyonlar\u0131n) birebir i\u015fleyece\u011fini varsaymamak gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve 95 dolar\u0131 a\u015fan petrol, CAD\u2019\u0131 destekleyerek USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,3655\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD perakende verisi dolar\u0131 tutuyor; opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselirken piyasada sert k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45182"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45182\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}