Japonya\u2019n\u0131n mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (d\u00f6nemsel dalgalanmalar temizlenmi\u015f) mal ticaret dengesi Mart\u2019ta 90,7 milyar yen fazla verdi. Bu, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki -374,2 milyar yen a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Denge, a\u00e7\u0131ktan fazlaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu durum, Mart\u2019ta ithalat (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan al\u0131m) ve ihracat\u0131n (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na sat\u0131\u015f) \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ticaret dengesinde sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor: 374,2 milyar yenlik b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131k Mart\u2019ta 90,7 milyar yenlik fazlaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu, yen i\u00e7in destekleyici bir sinyal; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ticaret fazlas\u0131, \u00fclkeye net d\u00f6viz giri\u015fini art\u0131rabilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yende de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veriye dayanarak USD\/JPY kurunda (ABD dolar\u0131\/Japon yeni paritesi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 gerilemeden faydalanman\u0131n do\u011frudan bir yolu olabilir. Daha temkinli veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan) call opsiyonu (kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) satmak; prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla al\u0131nan gelir) toplarken kurun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle kullan\u0131labilecek bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
Ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen verilerde, Japon otomobil ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu, k\u00fcresel talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6te yandan ithalat maliyetleri enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla daha dengeli seyrediyor; g\u00f6sterge ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekte teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan standart petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda yatay kal\u0131yor. Bu tablo, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat ve y\u00f6netilebilir ithalat maliyetiyle yen i\u00e7in daha sa\u011flam bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te piyasalar\u0131n oynakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) d\u00f6nemde, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) \u201cpolitika normalle\u015fmesi\u201d (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) sinyalleri bile yende h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ultra gev\u015fek duru\u015ftan (\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve y\u00fcksek likidite) uzakla\u015fma beklentilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilir. B\u00f6yle bir de\u011fi\u015fim, yenin daha da de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici olabilir; opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 (piyasada opsiyonlar\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bu riskleri ne kadar yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131) bunu hen\u00fcz tam i\u00e7ermiyor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde Nikkei 225 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale geliyor. Yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, ihracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck Japon \u015firketlerinin k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirlerin yene \u00e7evrilmesiyle gelirlerin azalmas\u0131) bask\u0131layabilir ve endekse kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratabilir. Uzun hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in ters\/dengeleyici i\u015flem) i\u00e7in opsiyonlar kullan\u0131labilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Nikkei 225 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda long put spread stratejisi (bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satarak maliyeti azaltan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u00e7\/s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyetli yap\u0131) kurmak, kur kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi Mart\u2019ta 90,7 milyar yen fazla verdi; \u00f6nceki -374,2 milyardan toparland\u0131. Yen destek bulabilir, USD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve Nikkei\u2019de hedge ihtiyac\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45176"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45176\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}