USD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,37 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD seans\u0131nda 159,65\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra bu seviyeye geldi. Son seanslarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 158,55\u2013159,65 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019la do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in s\u00fcreyi uzatt\u0131. Bu durum, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) k\u0131sa vadede kesinti endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131. Riskli varl\u0131klar (hisse senedi gibi dalgalanmas\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini izleyen g\u00f6sterge) geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Mart Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131; beklenti %1,4\u2019t\u00fc. Fed Ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 Kevin Warsh Kongre\u2019de \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) tonda ifade verdi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f Mart d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Ulusal T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc gelecek. Taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm i\u00e7in piyasa beklentisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8; \u00f6nceki %1,6 idi.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte USD\/JPY 159,41\u2019de, g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 158,88\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Stokastik RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge) 36 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi seviye) 159,41, ard\u0131ndan 158,88 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte USD\/JPY 159,41\u2019de, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 158,20 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 154,64 \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Stokastik RSI 27 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Destek 159,40, ard\u0131ndan 158,20 ve 154,64.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131nca, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Piyasa, \u0130ran\u2019la gerilimin azalmas\u0131na ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerine tepki veriyordu. Bug\u00fcn tablo de\u011fi\u015fti: Parite bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 170\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyeleri test etti. Bu nedenle piyasadaki ana odak, Japon yetkililerin do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesi (kurdaki hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131). Dinamikler genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan, d\u00f6viz spek\u00fclat\u00f6rleri ile Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fmeye kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar zay\u0131flasa da Yen, geleneksel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren para) \u00f6zelli\u011finden yeterince fayda sa\u011flayamad\u0131. Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ana nedeni art\u0131k Japonya ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131. Bu fark y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in carry trade (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli varl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelme) Yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi de bu bask\u0131y\u0131 tam k\u0131rmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) bu y\u0131l negatif faiz politikas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131md\u0131 ancak trendi tersine \u00e7evirmeye yetmedi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi (ABD\u2019nin 10 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) %4,5 civar\u0131nda. Japon devlet tahvillerine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,6 puanl\u0131k fark, Yen sat\u0131p dolar almak i\u00e7in cazip bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, USD\/JPY\u2019de geri \u00e7ekilmelerin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin) bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son ulusal T\u00dcFE verisi %2,5 ile BoJ hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalsa da, h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir enflasyona i\u015faret etmedi. Bu nedenle yetkililerin Yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla m\u00fccadelede ana arac\u0131 kur m\u00fcdahalesi. Bu da \u201colay riski\u201d (m\u00fcdahale gibi bir geli\u015fmeyle fiyat\u0131n aniden sert hareket etmesi riski) yarat\u0131yor. Parite 170,00\u2019e do\u011fru yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hamle yaparsa Japon yetkililerin devreye girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahalenin yaratabilece\u011fi ani ve sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski nedeniyle, spot piyasada uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak riskli. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yapanlar i\u00e7in, JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma almak, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynamak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m. \u00d6rt\u00fck volatilite (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in opsiyonlar pahal\u0131la\u015fsa da, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan belli ederek) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir devlet kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeye pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\/yen 159,40\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131rken g\u00f6zler Tokyo\u2019da: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verisi ve y\u00fcksek faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i besliyor. \u0130ran gerilimi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; olas\u0131 kur m\u00fcdahalesi sert d\u00fczeltme riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45173\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}