AUD\/USD, Kuzey Amerika i\u015flemlerinde %0,30\u2019dan fazla geriledi. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,7185 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan son olarak 0,7153 seviyesinde. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 artan \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerine y\u00f6nelmesi) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 masaya getirme \u00e7abalar\u0131 sonu\u00e7 vermedi. ABD ise \u0130ran\u2019dan gelecek teklifi beklerken ate\u015fkesi uzatt\u0131. ABD ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukalar\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran devlet televizyonu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi tan\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve uymayabilece\u011fini bildirdi. Haberde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201culusal \u00e7\u0131karlara\u201d g\u00f6re hareket edece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (t\u00fcketicilerin ma\u011faza ve \u00e7evrim i\u00e7i sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131; i\u00e7 talebin g\u00f6stergesi) martta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki %0,7 idi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %4\u2019te kald\u0131. ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 39 bin seviyesinden 54,8 bine y\u00fckseldi (ADP: \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131na dair \u00f6nc\u00fc veri t\u00fcr\u00fc).<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da veri takvimi sakindi. RBA (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131), orta vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinde (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekte enflasyonun nereye gidece\u011fine dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc) y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00f6nlemeye odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalar 4 May\u0131s\u2019taki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %77, 28 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ise bir art\u0131\u015f daha ihtimalini fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde parite 0,7180 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybedip 0,7150\u2019ye y\u00f6neldi; RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/ivmesini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Destek 0,7129\u2019da; ard\u0131ndan 0,7100 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) 0,7046 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 0,7187 ve 0,7221\u2019de.<\/p>\n
Trump d\u00f6nemi gerilimlerini and\u0131ran, tan\u0131d\u0131k bir \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d tablosu yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde daha az riskli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu da Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimleri i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kez ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7 sadece jeopolitikten kaynaklanm\u0131yor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik verilerle de destekleniyor. Son veriler, ABD \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (enerji ve g\u0131day\u0131 d\u0131\u015flayan enflasyon; daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir) Fed hedefinin \u00fczerinde %3,8\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 da ge\u00e7en ay 303 bin yeni istihdam ekledi. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirimini ertelemesine y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD ekonomisinin bu temel g\u00fcc\u00fc, AUD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada RBA da zor bir dengede. RBA, i\u00e7eride y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 olan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kal\u0131yor (\u015fahin: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faizden yana). Ancak k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6neli\u015f bu etkiyi g\u00f6lgeliyor. Bu nedenle olumlu Avustralya haberleri bile Aussie\u2019nin ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yapmas\u0131na yetmeyebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma ve jeopolitik risk \u201coynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d art\u0131rabilir (oynakl\u0131k: fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert hareket etmesi). Bu ortamda AUD\/USD\u2019de \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir (iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon stratejileri; fiyat sert yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 giderse kazan\u00e7 hedefler, y\u00f6n tahmini gerektirmez). Paritenin 0,6550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor; bu, \u00f6nceki gerilim d\u00f6nemindeki 0,7150 seviyelerine g\u00f6re olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve piyasan\u0131n daha temkinli konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Aussie\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyenler, \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011ferlenen sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) almay\u0131 veya \u201cbear put spread\u201d kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir (iki put opsiyonuyla maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131p riski daha net tan\u0131mlayan strateji). AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,6500 ana deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 0,7100 alt\u0131na ini\u015fin sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; benzer bir senaryo tekrarlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik gerilim ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d k\u00f6r\u00fckledi: AUD\/USD %0,30+ d\u00fc\u015ferek 0,7153\u2019te. RBA \u015fahin kalsa da dolar bask\u0131n; 0,7129\/0,7100 destek. Oynakl\u0131kta opsiyon stratejileri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45170"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45170\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}