ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin s\u00fcresi \u00c7ar\u015famba gecesi doluyor ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc iki taraftan da daha sert mesajlar geldi. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in liderli\u011finde planlanan ABD heyetinin \u0130slamabad ziyareti ertelendi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, CNBC\u2019ye verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda s\u00fcre uzat\u0131m\u0131 istemedi\u011fini ve ordunun operasyonlara yeniden ba\u015flamaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca Truth Social\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi defalarca ihlal etti\u011fini yazd\u0131. Bu s\u0131rada ABD\u2019li yetkililer Beyaz Saray\u2019da politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131 yapt\u0131; heyet ise Washington\u2019da kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, se\u00e7eneklerini h\u00e2l\u00e2 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve t\u0131kanmay\u0131 ABD\u2019nin ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131. Buna Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a ait ticari gemi Touska\u2019ya el konulmas\u0131 da dahil. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, askeri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ilerlememesi gerekti\u011fini de belirtti.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fma ihtimali zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a piyasalar tepki verdi. WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri %4 artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Brent %2 y\u00fckselerek 98 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine geldi. Bu s\u0131rada DJIA vadeli i\u015flemleri petrol y\u00fckselirken ve Hazine tahvili faizleri artt\u0131k\u00e7a yakla\u015f\u0131k 49.800\u2019den 49.400\u2019e geriledi. (Vadeli i\u015flem: ileri tarihli alma-satma s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi. Hazine tahvili faizi: ABD devlet tahvillerinin getirisi.)<\/p>\n
MarineTraffic verilerine g\u00f6re Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan 16 gemi ge\u00e7ti. Bu su yolu normalde d\u00fcnya petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131r. Pakistan, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 24 saat i\u00e7inde yeniden ba\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tarih, bu t\u00fcr durumlar\u0131n h\u0131zla t\u0131rmanabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Brent petrol iki haftada %25\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamamas\u0131, k\u00fcresel arz yollar\u0131na do\u011frudan tehdit nedeniyle benzer hatta daha sert bir fiyat \u015fokunu tetikleyebilir. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) zaten y\u00fcksek seviyede. (Oynakl\u0131k endeksi: fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar sert dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm.) Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Fiziksel aksama \u015fimdiden belirgin; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de trafik normalin \u00e7ok alt\u0131na indi. Bu su yolu, d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik hat. Tam bir askeri kapanma enerji piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r sonu\u00e7 do\u011furur. Mevcut tablo pazarl\u0131k de\u011fil, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi pozisyon alma s\u00fcrecini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in do\u011frudan maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir ve geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Dow vadeli i\u015flem grafi\u011finde 49.800 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, petrol\u00fcn enflasyon endi\u015felerini beslemesiyle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck desteklerin test edilmesi beklenebilir. (Destek: fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi seviye.)<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler daha fazla etkilenebilir. Savunma \u015firketleri, artan askeri faaliyetlerden fayda g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in takip edilebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k havayolu ve kruvaziyer \u015firketleri, hem yak\u0131t maliyetleri hem de zay\u0131flayan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni nedeniyle daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan durumda. (\u00c7a\u011fr\u0131 opsiyonu\/call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Geri say\u0131m ba\u015flad\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi bitiyor, sert mesajlar riski b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Trump uzatma istemiyor. Petrol WTI 93$, Brent 98$ \u00fczeri; OVX y\u00fcksek. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz trafi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, vadeli endeksler geriledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45158\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}