Rabobank stratejisti Michael Every, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, AB\u2019nin finansman planlar\u0131 ve Avrupa i\u00e7indeki siyasi ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n etkisiyle Euro i\u00e7in karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo \u00e7iziyor. Ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcvenlik ve d\u0131\u015f politika alan\u0131nda ABD ile Avrupa aras\u0131nda daha geni\u015f bir gerilime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Every\u2019ye g\u00f6re Ukrayna sahada ilerleme kaydediyor ve \u00f6zellikle \u0130HA (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle zafer ihtimali daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i hale geliyor. AB ise \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle ABD\u2019den silah sevkiyatlar\u0131nda gecikme olabilece\u011fine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
The Times, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin kendi sular\u0131ndaki Rus \u201cg\u00f6lge filo\u201d tankerlerine (yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015fmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan, m\u00fclkiyeti\/sigortas\u0131 belirsiz gemiler) el koymad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaz\u0131yor; gerek\u00e7e olarak limanda ba\u011flama ve bak\u0131m maliyetleri g\u00f6steriliyor. Fransa ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ise Ukrayna\u2019ya, AB ortak b\u00fct\u00e7esine eri\u015fim veya oy hakk\u0131 olmadan \u201csembolik\u201d (pratik etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) faydalar sunan bir AB\u2019ye kat\u0131l\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
The Wall Street Journal, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n yeniden silahlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131yla bir\u00e7ok Alman \u015firketin savunma tedarik\u00e7isi (ordunun ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetleri sa\u011flayan firma) olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktar\u0131yor. Haberde, metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n kazanma ihtimali ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n sanayide savunmaya y\u00f6nelmesi, sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yarat\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupal\u0131 savunma \u015firketlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirmek g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015firketlerin sipari\u015f birikimi (bekleyen kesin sipari\u015flerin toplam\u0131) art\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Rheinmetall AG\u2019nin sipari\u015f birikiminin 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 50 milyar euroyu a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildiriliyor. Bu e\u011filim, k\u0131sa vadeli sava\u015f alan\u0131 geli\u015fmelerinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, ABD deste\u011findeki gecikmeler ve AB i\u00e7inde Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in VSTOXX vadeli i\u015flem veya al\u0131m opsiyonu (Avrupa borsa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayal\u0131, riskten korunma arac\u0131) almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar sert dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) son bir ayda %15 artarak 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2025 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2022\u2019de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde VIX endeksinin (ABD piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 35\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, jeopolitik stresin piyasay\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkileyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Euro, bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7lerin aras\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de net bir y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Euro\u2019da uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) uygun olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc gerilimler b\u00fcy\u00fcrse iki y\u00f6ne de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat hareketi ya\u015fanabilir. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Nisan 2026 ba\u015f\u0131na ait son toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 da kurul i\u00e7inde gelecekteki politika konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stererek kurda ani ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor hareket ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\u2019da f\u0131rt\u0131na kap\u0131da: Ukrayna\u2019daki ivme, AB i\u00e7i ayr\u0131\u015fma ve ABD\u2019yle gerilim kur g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Savunma hisseleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor; EUR\/USD\u2019de straddle, VSTOXX hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45155\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}