Scotiabank stratejistleri Shaun Osborne ve Eric Theoret, ABD dolar\u0131 istikrar kazan\u0131rken Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n (CAD) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. USD\/CAD i\u00e7in (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kanada dolar\u0131 paritesi) genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin (paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ana trendinin) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirttiler.<\/p>\n
Kanada T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin beklentiden daha zay\u0131f geldi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ektiler. Bunun, karar al\u0131c\u0131lara enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in daha fazla zaman tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylediler.<\/p>\n
1\u00c7 \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Anketi\u2019ne (Business Outlook Survey: \u015firketlerin talep, fiyat ve maliyet beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en BoC anketi) at\u0131f yaparak, enflasyon beklentilerinin diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ettiler. Rekor say\u0131da kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131, enflasyonun %2\u2013%3 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) 29 Nisan\u2019daki faiz karar\u0131nda politika faizini (hedef faiz oran\u0131n\u0131) %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar politikan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fini de eklediler.<\/p>\n
Teknik seviyelerde (grafik temelli seviyeler), 1,3750 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fleri zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini belirttiler; bunu 40 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (son 40 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131), mart ortas\u0131 zirveleri ve \u00f6nceki destek (daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri durdurmu\u015f seviye) ile ili\u015fkilendirdiler. ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in destek seviyelerini (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek seviyeler) 1,3625\/30 ve 1,3500\/25 olarak s\u0131ralad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6neme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, USD\/CAD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve sa\u011flam oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesine dayan\u0131yordu. O d\u00f6nemdeki analiz 1,3750 civar\u0131nda belirgin bir diren\u00e7 seviyesine i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/p>\n
O zamandan bu yana tablo belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 art\u0131k farkl\u0131 bir rota sinyali veriyor. Banka k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce politika faizini %3,50\u2019de sabit tuttu, ancak ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek haziran kadar erken bir tarihte olas\u0131 faiz indirimine i\u015faret etti. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimiyle belirgin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada ABD ile \u201cpara politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) paritenin ana belirleyicilerinden biri haline geliyor. Son veriler, ABD ekonomisinin ge\u00e7en ay beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 285 bin istihdam ekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d \u00e7izgide (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f; faiz indirimine mesafeli tutum) tutarak faiz indirimi konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6teliyor. Faiz beklentileri aras\u0131ndaki bu b\u00fcy\u00fcyen fark, USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon dinamikleri de 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden farkl\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l T\u00dcFE\u2019nin zay\u0131f gelmesi BoC\u2019ye alan a\u00e7arken, Mart 2026 raporu enflasyonun %2,9 ile \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de bar\u0131nma maliyetleri nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ancak piyasa, mevcut enflasyon okumaktan \u00e7ok merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cileri y\u00f6nlendirmesine\u201d (forward guidance: gelecekteki faiz\/politika patikas\u0131na dair sinyal ve mesajlar) odaklan\u0131yor; yani gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimi\/s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) ili\u015fkin mesajlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Scotiabank\u2019a g\u00f6re zay\u0131f T\u00dcFE CAD\u2019i bask\u0131larken USD\/CAD\u2019de ana e\u011filim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; ancak BoC\u2019nin olas\u0131 indirim sinyali ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp pariteyi yukar\u0131 itiyor; 1,3750 kritik diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45154"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45154\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}