Alt\u0131n sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanmayla birlikte 4.700 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,50 geriledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda yeniden artan gerilim de piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (t\u00fcketicilerin ma\u011faza ve internet harcamalar\u0131) mart ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131; beklenti %1,4 idi. \u015eubat verisi %0,7\u2019ye revize edildi (\u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131klama sonradan d\u00fczeltilir). ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 izleyen veri) d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 39 binden 54,8 bine y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin Pakistan\u2019da ikinci turuna dair haberler \u00e7eli\u015fkiliydi. \u0130ran devlet yay\u0131nc\u0131s\u0131, Telegram\u2019da hi\u00e7bir \u0130ran heyetinin \u0130slamabad\u2019a gitmedi\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bir Beyaz Saray yetkilisi, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz yola \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin (ge\u00e7ici \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona ermesi bekleniyor. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, ate\u015fkesi uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cson derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; anla\u015fma imzalanmadan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, ABD deniz g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 ablukayla (ge\u00e7i\u015fi k\u0131s\u0131tlayan fiili engel) kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor ve enflasyon risklerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu da faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Y\u00fcksek faiz, getiri sa\u011flamayan alt\u0131na (faiz\/kupon \u00f6demesi olmayan varl\u0131k) talebi azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte alt\u0131n, Bollinger orta \u00e7izgisinin (fiyat\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren bant g\u00f6stergesinin orta hatt\u0131) alt\u0131nda, 4.795,92 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) noktalar\u0131 4.725, 4.796 ve 4.867 dolarda izleniyor. RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 35\u2019ti (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) ve ADX 14\u2019e yak\u0131nd\u0131 (trend g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer zay\u0131f trendi i\u015faret eder).<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes s\u00fcresi bu \u00e7ar\u015famba dolarken, alt\u0131nda sert bir fiyat hareketi riski art\u0131yor. Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair \u00e7eli\u015fkili haberler sonucu \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc bir tablo yarat\u0131yor; bu da tek y\u00f6ne pozisyon almay\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir ortam, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde sert harekete oynayan stratejilere daha uygun.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131kta (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlanmak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Gold VIX (GVZ) (alt\u0131n i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) muhtemelen son bir haftada %30\u2019un \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa tepkisine benzer bir art\u0131\u015f. Bu durum opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerde etkisini art\u0131r\u0131r. Uzun straddle; ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadeyle hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak demektir ve mevcut banttan (aral\u0131k) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmada iki y\u00f6nde de f\u0131rsat sunar.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik daha kolay yol a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve sa\u011flam ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. 2025\u2019teki COT (Commitment of Traders) raporlar\u0131 (vadeli piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren rapor) incelendi\u011finde, \u201cmanaged money\u201dnin (fonlar gibi profesyonel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 grubu) jeopolitik riskin, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu (faiz art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n politika) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geri planda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlarda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan) h\u0131zla kapatabildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu nedenle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin resmen \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in 4.650 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrmesi, WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (ABD referansl\u0131 ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutuyor ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 besliyor. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclse de piyasa \u015fu an daha \u00e7ok getiri sa\u011flamayan metali elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetine (ayn\u0131 paray\u0131 faiz getiren varl\u0131kta de\u011ferlendirememe maliyeti) odaklan\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131nda net bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar bu bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 4.725 dolar b\u00f6lgesi art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7. Bu haftan\u0131n diplerinin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 ini\u015f, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir. RSI\u2019\u0131n yeni fiyat diplerini teyit etmemesi (momentumun e\u015flik etmemesi), y\u00fckseli\u015f ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferken g\u00f6stergenin toparlanmas\u0131) i\u015faret edebilir. S\u00fcrpriz bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde sert bir rahatlama rallisi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. B\u00f6yle bir \u201ckuyruk riskine\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama b\u00fcy\u00fck etkili senaryo) kar\u015f\u0131, ucuz ve \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedge) yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: Dolar ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileriyle 4.700 dolara kayd\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi, enflasyon-faiz endi\u015fesini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Ate\u015fkes bitimi \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k artarken, opsiyonlu stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45153\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}