GBP\/USD, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep art\u0131nca %0,18 geriledi. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 1,3539\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3507 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de yeni veriler, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (istihdam\u0131n) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca ABD Senatosu oturumunda, Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndemindeki Kevin Warsh ile ili\u015fkilendirilen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine neden oluyor, GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,35 civar\u0131nda tutuyordu. Bu ortam, daha \u201cagresif\u201d bir Fed beklentisiyle (faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 veya art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) \u015fekillenmi\u015fti. Nisan 2026\u2019da ise tablo farkl\u0131; piyasa \u015fimdi ABD ekonomisinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretlerine odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son ABD verileri bu alg\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimini destekledi. En son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi, yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 150 binle tahminlerin belirgin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonu %2,8\u2019e geriledi. Bu verilerle birlikte piyasalar, y\u0131l bitmeden Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025 boyunca piyasay\u0131 etkileyen \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: faizde art\u0131\u015f veya s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f mesaj\u0131) tondan ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, daha kal\u0131c\u0131 (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; son veri %3,5 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoE) politika faizini (Bank Rate: BoE\u2019nin ana faiz oran\u0131) %5,0\u2019ta tutmaya zorlad\u0131 ve ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla belirgin, giderek a\u00e7\u0131lan bir faiz avantaj\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 2025 seviyelerinden mevcut i\u015flem band\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015finin ana nedeni olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda (currency options: belirli bir tarihe kadar\/belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility: piyasada fiyatlanan beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir tema olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline kat\u0131lmak ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. B\u00f6ylece, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi olas\u0131 ek sterlin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden yararlan\u0131rken riskini kontrol eder.<\/p>\n
Korunmak (hedge: kur riskini azaltmak) veya y\u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc almak isteyenler i\u00e7in, vadeli d\u00f6viz s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle (forward: ileri bir tarihte belirli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) GBP\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyon almak etkili olabilir. \u201cForward puanlar\u0131\u201d (forward points: spot kur ile vadeli kur aras\u0131ndaki fark) ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisini (carry trade: iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanma) yans\u0131tmal\u0131 ve spot piyasaya g\u00f6re k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir fiyat avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, \u201c\u0130ngiltere\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun s\u00fcrmesi\u201d ile \u201cABD\u2019de beklenen gev\u015femenin (faiz indiriminin) yakla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d temas\u0131na do\u011frudan bir pozisyondur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla GBP\/USD %0,18 d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,3507\u2019ye indi. Fed indirimi %60+ fiyatlan\u0131rken BoE %5\u2019te kald\u0131; faiz fark\u0131, opsiyon\/forward stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45151\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}