TD Securities\u2019ten Daniel Ghali, alt\u0131n\u0131 ABD g\u00fcc\u00fc ve b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinine (devletin gelir-gider dengesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir tutabilme) dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere dayanan bir \u201cHegemon i\u015flemi\u201d ile ili\u015fkilendiriyor. Ghali\u2019ye g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7 alg\u0131s\u0131; yabanc\u0131 alacakl\u0131lar\u0131n (ABD\u2019ye bor\u00e7 verenler), merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ve genel piyasan\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ayr\u0131cal\u0131k\u201d (d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca rezerv paras\u0131 olan dolar sayesinde daha kolay bor\u00e7lanabilme ve d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k finanse edebilme avantaj\u0131) kapasitesini nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini belirliyor.<\/p>\n
Ghali, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u201cde\u011fer kayb\u0131 i\u015flemi\u201dnin (paran\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcne olan g\u00fcvenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 temas\u0131) en belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u0131ymetli metallerde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve her iki teman\u0131n da dolar\u0131n \u201cde\u011fer saklama\u201d (birikimi uzun vadede sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyarak tutabilme) i\u015fleviyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurguluyor. Ayr\u0131ca jeopolitik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n (\u00fclkenin uluslararas\u0131 alanda etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme g\u00fcc\u00fc), ABD\u2019nin bu rol\u00fc savunabilme kapasitesine duyulan g\u00fcvenle yak\u0131ndan ilgili oldu\u011funu ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ghali, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda mevcut \u201ckur savunmas\u0131\u201d (\u00fclkenin para birimini korumak i\u00e7in rezerv sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, sermaye hareketlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlama gibi ad\u0131mlar) d\u00f6neminin, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tam zafer beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Bunun, \u00fclkelerin rezerv \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesi (rezervleri dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klara yayma) yerine enerji ithalat\u0131, ekonomik istikrar ve kur istikrar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceliklendirmesi nedeniyle alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ghali, kur savunmas\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesi; \u00f6zellikle olumsuz bir ate\u015fkes (taraflardan biri i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc sonu\u00e7lanan anla\u015fma) yoluyla olursa, alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin (uzun s\u00fcreli fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bir sonraki aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fini ifade ediyor. Bunu, alt\u0131na daha h\u0131zl\u0131 rezerv kayd\u0131rma ve ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn (birikmi\u015f kamu borcunun ekonomi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131) yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu makale, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u201cde\u011fer kayb\u0131\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131ymetli metalleri yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u015eimdi piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini ABD g\u00fcc\u00fc ve b\u00fct\u00e7e sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011flayan \u201cHegemon i\u015flemi\u201dne kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu tema, basit enflasyondan (fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131) \u00e7ok, dolar\u0131n uzun vadede \u201cde\u011fer saklama\u201d rol\u00fcyle ilgili.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u015fu an alt\u0131n i\u00e7in bask\u0131 unsuru olu\u015fturuyor ve fiyatlar\u0131 dar bir bantta tutuyor. \u0130lgili \u00fclkeler \u201ckur savunmas\u0131\u201d a\u015famas\u0131nda; alt\u0131n rezervi art\u0131rmak yerine enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ve ekonomik istikrara odaklan\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re %15 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u00f6nceliklerin ge\u00e7ici olarak de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in bu durum, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileri tarihte teslim i\u00e7in standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ile n\u00f6tr aras\u0131nda bir duru\u015fu destekliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Bat\u0131 lehine bir ate\u015fkes ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir ve bu da dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirse, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k %14\u2019e gerilemi\u015f durumda; bu da piyasan\u0131n daha sakin bir seyir bekledi\u011fini ve bu t\u00fcr koruma pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k as\u0131l f\u0131rsat, kur savunmas\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131 ihtimalinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Cenevre\u2019deki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden olumsuz bir ate\u015fkes \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 veya ABD\u2019nin jeopolitik etkisini kaybetti\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret, alt\u0131nda yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6neminin tetikleyicisi olabilir. 1970\u2019lerde de benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f; ABD\u2019nin ekonomik y\u00f6netimine duyulan g\u00fcven zay\u0131flay\u0131nca ve dolar-alt\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131 koptuktan (dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7evrilebilirli\u011finin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) sonra alt\u0131n h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan al\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) alarak sert bir yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Piyasa \u015fu an bu jeopolitik riski yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor; oda\u011f\u0131 daha \u00e7ok ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na vermi\u015f durumda. Oysa ABD\u2019nin borcun mill\u00ee gelire oran\u0131 (debt-to-GDP: bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn ekonomiye g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) son CBO (Kongre B\u00fct\u00e7e Ofisi) tahminlerine g\u00f6re %125\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Alg\u0131 de\u011fi\u015firse, \u00fclkeler rezervlerini ABD borcundan (\u00f6zellikle ABD tahvilleri) uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmeye y\u00f6neldik\u00e7e bu pozisyonlar \u00f6nemli kazan\u00e7lar sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda yeni hik\u00e2ye: \u201cHegemon i\u015flemi\u201d! Piyasa, Fed\u2019den \u00e7ok ABD g\u00fcc\u00fc ve b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinine bak\u0131yor. \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131yor; kur savunmas\u0131 bozulur, olumsuz ate\u015fkes gelirse ralli h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45142\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}