{"id":45141,"date":"2026-04-21T21:25:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T21:25:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-ingilterede-siyasi-belirsizlikler-ve-boe-fiyatlamasindaki-yeniden-degerlendirme-mayis-secimleri-oncesinde-sterline-yonelik-havayi-muhtemelen-zayiflatacak\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T21:25:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T21:25:21","slug":"rabobanktan-jane-foley-ingilterede-siyasi-belirsizlikler-ve-boe-fiyatlamasindaki-yeniden-degerlendirme-mayis-secimleri-oncesinde-sterline-yonelik-havayi-muhtemelen-zayiflatacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-ingilterede-siyasi-belirsizlikler-ve-boe-fiyatlamasindaki-yeniden-degerlendirme-mayis-secimleri-oncesinde-sterline-yonelik-havayi-muhtemelen-zayiflatacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi belirsizlikler ve BoE fiyatlamas\u0131ndaki yeniden de\u011ferlendirme, May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde sterline y\u00f6nelik havay\u0131 muhtemelen zay\u0131flatacak"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rabobank, \u0130ngiltere siyasetinin Sterlin\u2019e (Pound\/GBP) y\u00f6nelik piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; oda\u011f\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan Starmer\u2019\u0131n konumu ve \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin (Labour) May\u0131s se\u00e7imlerindeki \u015fans\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca Starmer\u2019\u0131n, Avam Kamaras\u0131\u2019nda (\u0130ngiliz Parlamentosu\u2019nun alt kanad\u0131) Mendelson\u2019\u0131n ABD b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi olarak i\u015fe al\u0131nmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sorularla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Banka, Ortado\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana Sterlin\u2019in erken d\u00f6nemdeki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Bank of England\/BoE) ili\u015fkin politika beklentilerindeki sert de\u011fi\u015fime ba\u011flad\u0131. Ancak bu beklentilerin daha sonra geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini; bu nedenle enflasyon ve faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (faiz oranlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken GBP\u2019nin daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geldi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Sterlin G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Siyaset ve Faizler Belirliyor<\/h3>\n

Mart ay\u0131nda piyasalar bu y\u0131l iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; y\u00fczde 0,25) faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131ndan, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisine ge\u00e7ti. Bu ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131flay\u0131nca GBP, G10 (10 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimi) performans s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda geriledi.<\/p>\n

Rabobank, ge\u00e7en ay enflasyon endi\u015felerinin GBP\u2019yi destekledi\u011fini, ancak ilkbaharda siyasi belirsizli\u011fin \u0130ngiltere piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurabilece\u011fini ekledi. Bu i\u00e7erik bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi.<\/p>\n

2025\u2019te siyaset ve faiz piyasas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n Sterlin i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ortam\u0131 \u015fekillendirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l piyasa beklentileri faiz indiriminden faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na sert bi\u00e7imde gidip geldi ve GBP\u2019de belirgin dalgalanma yaratt\u0131. Bu tedirginlik piyasadan tamamen kaybolmu\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla gerilese de Mart 2026\u2019daki son veri olan %3,1 h\u00e2l\u00e2 Merkez Bankas\u0131 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde. Ekonomi, ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %0,1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin ard\u0131ndan durgunluk sinyali verirken \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 zor bir dengeyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu durum, enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in faizi %5,50\u2019de tutma ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleme ihtiyac\u0131 aras\u0131nda net bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Sterlin Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u0130\u015flem (Trading) Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Bu gerilim nedeniyle, bir sonraki Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (Monetary Policy Committee\/MPC; BoE\u2019nin faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, belirsizlikten yararlanabilen stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedefler). Piyasa \u015fu anda A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak Banka\u2019dan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f; faiz indirimine daha az istekli) bir s\u00fcrpriz gelmesi Sterlin\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yaratabilir.<\/p>\n

Siyasi zemin de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez; May\u0131s 2025 genel se\u00e7iminde al\u0131nan k\u0131l pay\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun ard\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fct\u00e7e ve maliye planlar\u0131na (kamu harcamas\u0131, vergi, bor\u00e7lanma) y\u00f6nelik her t\u00fcr itiraz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 kolayca tedirgin edip Sterlin \u00fczerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. Bu siyasi risk primi (belirsizlik nedeniyle talep edilen ek getiri) \u015fimdilik baz\u0131 uzun vadeli al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 kenarda tutuyor.<\/p>\n

Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin\u2019de y\u00f6n arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya kritik uyar\u0131: Rabobank\u2019a g\u00f6re Starmer-Labour g\u00fcndemi ve BoE faiz patikas\u0131 GBP alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek. Enflasyon, durgunluk sinyali ve artan opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45141\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}