ABD\u2019de bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,1 geriledi. \u00d6nceki veride y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f %0,8 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %\u20111,1\u2019e inmesi, konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00fcksek seyreden mortgage (konut kredisi) faizleri\u2014\u015fu anda 30 y\u0131l vadeli sabit faizli kredide ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,8\u2014bu so\u011fuman\u0131n ana nedeni g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, konut al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n gelire g\u00f6re konut sat\u0131n alabilme kapasitesi) h\u00e2l\u00e2 zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bunu, konutla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisselerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6rmek gerekir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, konut \u00fcreticilerine odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) ITB veya XHB gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen opsiyon) almak etkili olabilir. Bu veri, \u015firketlerin k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fine ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentilerini (forward guidance: y\u00f6netimin gelecek d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in verdi\u011fi k\u00e2r\/sat\u0131\u015f hedefleri ve y\u00f6nlendirmesi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fine dair \u00f6nc\u00fc bir g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc son enflasyon verisi T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile y\u00fcksek kalan enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi (policy pivot: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f yerine faiz indirimi ya da daha gev\u015fek duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelme) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, uzun vadeli ABD tahvillerine odaklanan ETF\u2019lerde TLT gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde call opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen opsiyon) ekonomik yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 bir korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme i\u015flemi) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili ekonomik sinyaller, piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) artmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlar. VIX (beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi; piyasada korku g\u00f6stergesi olarak bilinir) \u015fu s\u0131ralar 14 civar\u0131nda ve son aylar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinde. Bu nedenle korunma maliyeti g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken VIX\u2019te call opsiyonu veya geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Konut piyasas\u0131 yeniden frene bas\u0131yor. %6,8 mortgage bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; ITB\/XHB\u2019de put, TLT\u2019de call ve VIX\u2019te ucuz korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45139\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}