EUR\/GBP Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. \u0130ngiltere i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Sterlin g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen zay\u0131f anket verileri Euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Parite 0,8700 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir bantta kald\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve olas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair belirsizlik nedeniyle temkinli kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Nisan\u2019da bozuldu. ZEW Ekonomik Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve analist beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket g\u00f6stergesi) -8,5\u2019ten -20,4\u2019e inerken, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ZEW endeksi -0,5\u2019ten -17,2\u2019ye geriledi; her ikisi de beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ZEW anket notuna g\u00f6re veriler, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve enerji arz\u0131na (piyasaya enerji sa\u011flanabilirli\u011fi) ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 daha zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin enflasyon riskini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ihtimalini fiyatlamaya devam etti. ECB yetkilileri, kararlar\u0131n gelecek verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve belirsiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de Claimant Count Change (i\u015fsizlik yard\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015fvurusu say\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim) Mart\u2019ta 26,8 bin artt\u0131 ve beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. Employment Change (istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) ise \u015eubat\u2019ta biten \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 25 bin oldu. ILO \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 (uluslararas\u0131 standartlara g\u00f6re hesaplanan i\u015fsizlik) %5,2\u2019den %4,9\u2019a geriledi. Dikkatler \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Mart ay\u0131 \u0130ngiltere enflasyon verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Reuters anketine g\u00f6re 62 ekonomistin tamam\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Nisan\u2019da politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ankete g\u00f6re ekonomistlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %53\u2019\u00fc, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da faizin de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP \u00e7apraz\u0131n\u0131n (iki para biriminin ABD dolar\u0131 olmadan birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) 0,8550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz; bu, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcre \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 0,8700 seviyesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Bu hareketin temel nedeni, ECB\u2019nin BoE\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirece\u011fine dair inanc\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 parite \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi k\u0131r\u0131lgan kal\u0131yor. Son Eurostat verileri, GSYH\u2019nin (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) son \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu zay\u0131f tablo, piyasalar\u0131n ECB\u2019nin bu yaz kadar erken bir tarihte faiz indirebilece\u011fini fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu, 2024 sonu ve 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda enerji arz\u0131 endi\u015felerinin b\u00f6lgenin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ilk kez bozdu\u011fu d\u00f6nemdeki havadan farkl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ngiltere ekonomisi daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da Sterlin\u2019i destekliyor. Son ONS verileri i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,3\u2019te yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Daha \u00f6nemlisi, hizmet enflasyonu (hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k BoE\u2019ye faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e veriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 ara\u00e7larla i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu ortam, EUR\/GBP\u2019de kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmaya uygun. Paritede put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,8400\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye do\u011frudan pozisyon alman\u0131n bir yolu. Alternatif olarak bear put spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonu kombinasyonu) kurmak, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek kritik veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin HICP\u2019si (Harmonize T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin CPI raporu (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) olacak. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 geriledi\u011fine dair i\u015faretler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Bu verilerin iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 yollara girdi\u011fini teyit etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 Euro\u2019yu bast\u0131r\u0131yor: EUR\/GBP zay\u0131f Euro B\u00f6lgesi ZEW verileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u0130ngiltere istihdam\u0131yla geriledi. ECB-BoE politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc besliyor; 0,8400 senaryosu masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45132\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}