ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4 artt\u0131. \u00d6nceki veri %3,7 idi.<\/p>\n
Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4 ile beklentilerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde gelerek piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Bu, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketicinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, ekonominin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyi (faiz indirimlerine gitmeyi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecek kadar yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yayg\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki bu g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki mal ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) de y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi. Hem harcama hem enflasyon beklenenden y\u00fcksek seyrederken, yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimali h\u0131zla azal\u0131yor. Piyasada Temmuz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn %25\u2019in alt\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
Faiz i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funa (faizleri beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. 2026 sonu vadeli SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik, teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faiz oran\u0131; vadeli kontrat: gelecekteki fiyata ili\u015fkin standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmak bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bekledi\u011fi h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaktan vazge\u00e7meye devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda ise s\u00fcren ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 ve inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen enflasyon) bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle 2025 sonundaki g\u00f6rece sakin d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan, SPX gibi geni\u015f endekslerde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 (put opsiyonu: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 \u201csatma hakk\u0131\u201d veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme; koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131r) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. VIX (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti g\u00f6rece cazip kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 bu ortamdan fayda sa\u011fl\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz farklar\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131) dolar lehine a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. DXY\u2019nin (Dolar Endeksi: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 100\u2019l\u00fc seviyelerden y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Japon Yeni gibi daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, daha gev\u015fek politika yanl\u0131s\u0131) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip \u00fclke para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolarda uzun pozisyon (de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) giderek daha avantajl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %4\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131: T\u00fcketici diren\u00e7li, enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131. Sonu\u00e7: Fed\u2019de yaz indirimi ihtimali eriyor; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, hisseye bask\u0131, opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45122\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}