ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 mart ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131. Veri, beklenen %1,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, t\u00fcketicinin beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum enflasyon (fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyindeki art\u0131\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu rapor, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirmesi ihtimalini belirgin \u015fekilde azalt\u0131yor. Ekonominin so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret eden veriler, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren bu net sinyalin g\u00f6lgesinde kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin faiz beklentilerinin piyasada yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerine (Fed\u2019in politika faizine dair piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti. Bu oran, sadece birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce fiyatlanan yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 seviyesinden belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan yararlanabilecek t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d hik\u00e2yesi yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu veri, ekonomi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnse bile olumsuz bir unsur. 2023 sonu ve 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Olumlu ekonomik s\u00fcrprizler, Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 (faizi daha y\u00fcksek tutan) duru\u015funa i\u015faret etti\u011fi i\u00e7in borsada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f getirebilmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle S&P 500 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde koruyucu put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 makul bir korunma y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in izleyece\u011fi yola dair belirsizlik, piyasada dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. VIX (CBOE Volatilite Endeksi; S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) tarih\u00ee d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor; son d\u00f6nemde 15\u2019in alt\u0131na inmi\u015fti. Ancak bu veri, VIX\u2019te h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir. VIX \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, beklenen oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri: ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 martta %1,7 artt\u0131, beklenti %1,4\u2019\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyon riski b\u00fcy\u00fcrken Fed\u2019in yaz faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40 alt\u0131na indi; borsada volatilite, koruma talebi artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45121"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45121\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}