ABD\u2019de ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 28 Mart itibar\u0131yla 54,8 bin oldu. \u00d6nceki de\u011fer 39 bindi.<\/p>\n
Bu, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamada 15,8 bin art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Veri, ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6stergesini ifade eder.<\/p>\n
Son ADP verisi, 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 54,8 bine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha yava\u015f so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, yak\u0131n vadede ekonomide belirgin bir yava\u015flama beklentisini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe girerken ekonomideki talebin h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politikas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Son T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren en temel enflasyon verisi) raporunda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,1 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131 da bunu destekliyor. Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l ortas\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentisini azaltabilir. Piyasa, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d (faizlerin beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) senaryosuna g\u00f6re beklentilerini yeniden ayarlamak zorunda kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131yla oynakl\u0131kta (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede h\u0131zl\u0131 ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 seviyesinde. Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu (k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131: y\u00fcksek faizle talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlama) beklenenden uzun s\u00fcrerse bu seviye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabilir. Bu nedenle yak\u0131n vadeli (front-month: en yak\u0131n vadeli) VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya opsiyonlarla uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. SPY (S&P 500\u2019\u00fc izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu\/ETF) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar da bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri taraf\u0131nda, faizin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve teknoloji hisseleri i\u00e7in olumsuz bir etken olabilir. Nasdaq 100 i\u00e7in QQQ ETF \u00fczerinden koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131nabilir veya ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread: bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131larak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) ile risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma sa\u011flarken maksimum zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan belirler.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n benzer \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiminin (pivot: faiz art\u0131r\u0131mdan indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ge\u00e7i\u015f gibi politika de\u011fi\u015fimi) gecikti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamak gerekir. Tarihsel olarak piyasa, faiz indirimi beklentisini zaman zaman erken fiyatlayabiliyor.<\/p>\n
S\u0131radaki kritik veriler, Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) raporu ve ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE verisi olacak. Bu veriler ya g\u00fc\u00e7lenen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc teyit edecek ya da ADP\u2019nin tek seferlik bir sapma (outlier: genel e\u011filimden belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7) oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterecek. Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, belirsizli\u011fin devam etmesi ve piyasan\u0131n beklentileri yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de ADP 4 haftal\u0131k istihdam ortalamas\u0131 54,8 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 diren\u00e7li. Bu, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimini \u00f6teleyebilir; volatilite artabilir. G\u00f6zler NFP ve T\u00dcFE\u2019de, piyasalar yeniden fiyatlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45119\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}