Euro, pazartesi 1,1790 civar\u0131nda tutunamay\u0131nca sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,1765\u2019e geriledi. Piyasalar, ZEW anketinin zay\u0131f sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na tepki verirken, odak Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) onay oturumu ile ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ZEW, Almanya ekonomik g\u00fcvenini nisanda -17,2 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu seviye Aral\u0131k 2022\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer. Beklenti -5\u2019ti; mart verisi -0,5\u2019ti. Mevcut durum de\u011ferlendirmesi de -62,9\u2019dan -73,7\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomik g\u00fcveni -20,4\u2019e geriledi; bu da Aral\u0131k 2022\u2019den bu yana en zay\u0131f seviye. Beklenti -3,6\u2019yd\u0131; \u00f6nceki veri -8,5\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
Wall Street Journal, Tahran\u2019\u0131n, bir ABD operasyonunda \u0130ran\u2019a ait bir y\u00fck gemisine el konulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nce bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinden \u00e7ekilme tehdidinde bulunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, b\u00f6lgesel arabuluculara Pakistan\u2019a bir heyet g\u00f6ndermeye istekli oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Reuters ise kimli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanmayan bir ABD kayna\u011f\u0131na dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde \u201cs\u00fcre\u00e7 ilerliyor\u201d ifadesini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Fed ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na aday g\u00f6sterilen Kevin Warsh, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Senato\u2019da onay oturumuna \u00e7\u0131kacak. G\u00fcndemde Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kurumun finansal varl\u0131k portf\u00f6y\u00fc (Fed\u2019in elinde tuttu\u011fu tahvil gibi varl\u0131klar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc) bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesi mart sonundaki diplerin \u00fczerinde kalsa da 1,1800 yak\u0131n\u0131nda duraksad\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 50 civar\u0131nda; MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini izleyen g\u00f6sterge) hafif negatif. Diren\u00e7 1,1790 ve 1,1850\u2019de; destek 1,1730, 1,1705 ve 1,1645\u20131,1675 band\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisine dair g\u00fcvenin son d\u00f6nemde belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flamas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ZEW anketinin Aral\u0131k 2022\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye inmesi, euronun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1800 alt\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131yla, daha kolay hareket y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafa d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f Avrupa verileri euro i\u00e7in ciddi bir bask\u0131 unsuru.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u00f6t\u00fcmser tablo tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u015fahin kalma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme e\u011filimi) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Destatis verileri, Almanya sanayi \u00fcretiminin ge\u00e7en ay beklentilerin aksine %0,5 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Enflasyonun yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve \u00fcretimin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, bu seviyelerden euro al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin olabilece\u011fi beklentisi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Son ABD T\u00dcFE raporunda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Benzer bir tablo 2022-2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde de ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, ABD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon verileri dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Temkinli bir ECB ile daha dikkatli\/s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015flu bir Fed aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 giderek netle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi tabloyu karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rsa da, piyasay\u0131 sarsabilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk ihtimalini (tail risk: olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama etkisi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck risk) azalt\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir gerilimin azalmas\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 veya alt\u0131n gibi geleneksel g\u00fcvenli limanlara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 da zay\u0131flatabilir. B\u00f6ylece \u015fu anda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen temel ekonomik etkenler yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasa art\u0131k faiz farklar\u0131na (interest rate differentials: iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) daha fazla odaklanabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve temel veriler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1,1705\u2019teki trend deste\u011finin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 da (options market: belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa) artan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. EUR\/USD i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k risk tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri (risk reversals: al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n maliyet fark\u0131yla piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n beklentisini g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) son d\u00f6nemde -0,4 seviyesinde ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 lehine. 1,1650 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike price: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) sahip EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, 1,1645\u20131,1675 destek b\u00f6lgesine olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (defined risk: kayb\u0131n \u00f6nceden belli oldu\u011fu yap\u0131) faydalanma yolu sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kap\u0131da m\u0131? Zay\u0131f ZEW ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00fcveni EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1765\u2019e \u00e7ekti; Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin Fed sinyali dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Teknikte destekler 1,1730-1,1705; opsiyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}