Sterlin, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin son b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda GBP\/USD, \u0130ngiltere istihdam verileri sonras\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri alsa da 1,3510 civar\u0131nda %0,15 eksideydi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere ILO i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 (Uluslararas\u0131 \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc standard\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplanan i\u015fsizlik) %4,9\u2019a geriledi; beklenti %5,2 idi. \u015eubat ay\u0131na kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 25 bin ki\u015fi oldu; \u00f6nceki 84 binin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130kramiye (prim) hari\u00e7 ortalama kazan\u00e7lar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6 artt\u0131; beklenti %3,5\u2019ti. Bu art\u0131\u015f, Ocak ay\u0131na kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,8\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) 30 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi %3,75\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini destekledi. Yeni y\u00f6n i\u00e7in g\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE verisine (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u00e7evrildi. Man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki %3).<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,2\u2019ye yak\u0131n art\u0131\u015fla 98,20 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu hareket, 14:00 GMT\u2019de Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n bir sonraki Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lacak onay oturumu \u00f6ncesinde geldi. Warsh, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar politikas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemi\u015f ve niceliksel gev\u015femeye (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan tahvil alarak para arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6te yandan politika g\u00fcndeminde, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026\u2019da oda\u011f\u0131n ana konusu kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon. \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1 ile, BoE\u2019nin hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde geldi ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde beklenen %3,3\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin de \u00fcst\u00fcnde kald\u0131. BoE politika faizi \u015fu anda %4,5 seviyesinde. Piyasada bu yaz en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar faiz takas\u0131 i\u015flemleriyle (interest rate swap: de\u011fi\u015fken faizi sabit faizle de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye yarayan, faiz riskini y\u00f6netme arac\u0131) faiz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin ABD taraf\u0131nda da belirsizlik farkl\u0131 bir noktaya ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Warsh\u2019\u0131n onay oturumu beklenirken, \u015fimdi Fed politika faizi %5,0 seviyesinde ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan burada kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Son g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) ge\u00e7en ay 250 binin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinin zor oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) duru\u015fu, GBP\/USD dinami\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi; parite art\u0131k 1,2950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki y\u00fcksek belirsizlik d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re gerileyerek %7,5 civar\u0131na indi. B\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik \u015foklar olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar prim geliri toplamak i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131 (\u00f6r. k\u0131sa strangle: ayn\u0131 vadede paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu satma stratejisi) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
BoE ve Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden odak, hangi merkezin \u00f6nce ad\u0131m atmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na (policy divergence: iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde kararlar almas\u0131) oynayan opsiyonlarda hareketlilik art\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, hangi \u00fclkede verilerin \u00f6nce zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerine g\u00f6re daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m ya da sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (long-dated call\/put: vadesi daha uzun opsiyon) olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin dalgal\u0131: \u0130\u015fsizlik %4,9\u2019a inse de GBP\/USD 1,3510\u2019da ekside. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor; BoE\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE ve Fed ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 oturumunda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45116\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}