EUR\/JPY, Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 187,20 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Parite, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan yatay kald\u0131. Euro, Almanya ZEW anket verileri sonras\u0131 fazla hareket etmeyince paritede de sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019da ZEW Ekonomik G\u00fcven endeksi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve analistlerin ekonomiye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en duyarl\u0131l\u0131k anketi) Nisan\u2019da -17,2\u2019ye geriledi. Bu seviye -5 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, Mart\u2019taki -0,5 seviyesinden de d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut Durum endeksi (ekonominin \u015fu anki ko\u015fullar\u0131na dair de\u011ferlendirme) -73,7\u2019ye indi; -70,0 beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131 ve -62,9\u2019dan geriledi.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi ZEW Ekonomik G\u00fcven endeksi -20,4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklenti -3,6 idi. Veriler, b\u00f6lge genelinde zay\u0131f g\u00fcven g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Luis de Guindos, \u00f6zel kredi (banka d\u0131\u015f\u0131\/\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ve kredi geni\u015flemesi) taraf\u0131n\u0131n finansal istikrar i\u00e7in risk kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. De Guindos ayr\u0131ca y\u00fcksek piyasa de\u011ferlemeleri (varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel ortalamalara g\u00f6re pahal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi) ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde gev\u015fek maliye politikas\u0131na (kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek, b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplininin zay\u0131f olmas\u0131) dikkat \u00e7ekti. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin belirsizlik nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. BoJ\u2019un, enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f ve \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olumsuz etkiler nedeniyle enflasyon tahminlerini yukar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Nikkei, BoJ\u2019un 28 Nisan\u2019da faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 %0,75\u2019te sabit tutabilece\u011fini yazd\u0131. Di\u011fer haberlerde, BoJ\u2019un Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 izledi\u011fi ve para politikas\u0131nda normalle\u015fmeye (uzun s\u00fcre gev\u015fek kalan politikan\u0131n kademeli olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) en erken Haziran\u2019da yeniden i\u015faret edebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/JPY, Almanya\u2019daki ekonomik g\u00fcvenin sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ra\u011fmen 187,20 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor. ZEW anketinin -17,2\u2019ye gerilemesi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi i\u00e7in belirgin bir zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Euro\u2019daki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Japon Yeni \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131yla dengeleniyor.<\/p>\n
Destatis\u2019in (Almanya \u0130statistik Ofisi) Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmininde (erken a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk veri) Almanya T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (CPI, t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,9\u2019a gerilemesi, ECB\u2019nin temkinli kalma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu tablo, ECB\u2019nin politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmakta (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya likiditeyi azaltma) acele etmeyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve Euro\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. ECB\u2019nin \u00f6zel kredi riskine ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar\u0131 da bu ihtiyatl\u0131 duru\u015fu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Parite i\u00e7in ana belirleyici ise BoJ\u2019un politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc olmaya devam ediyor. BoJ\u2019un 28 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi %0,75\u2019te b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenirken, Yen\u2019in getiri dezavantaj\u0131 (faizlerin g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiri sunmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, gecelik endeksli swaplar (OIS; piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini g\u00f6steren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) \u00fczerinden Temmuz\u2019dan \u00f6nce bir BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yaln\u0131zca %15 olas\u0131l\u0131k verildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da g\u00fcvercin alg\u0131y\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na uzak, destekleyici politika e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
2023 ve 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert Yen de\u011fer kayb\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde BoJ\u2019un \u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikas\u0131, kar\u015f\u0131 para birimlerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen Yen\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc uzun s\u00fcre desteklemi\u015fti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik ve artan enerji maliyetleri, BoJ\u2019un normalle\u015fmeyi geciktirmesi i\u00e7in ek gerek\u00e7e yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, Yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 188,00 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 hangi fiyattan verdi\u011fi seviye) EUR\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call option; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Di\u011fer yandan yakla\u015fan BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 1 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Uzun straddle stratejisi (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak, fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketinden yararlanma) BoJ\u2019un s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz var m\u0131? EUR\/JPY 187,20\u2019de yatay: Almanya ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi ZEW sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Euro zay\u0131f. Ancak BoJ belirsizli\u011fi Yen\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor; odak 28 Nisan karar\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45111\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}