AUD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda %0,35 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,7150 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131, Kevin Warsh\u2019un bir sonraki Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in saat 14:00 GMT\u2019de yap\u0131lacak **resm\u00ee onay oturumu** \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada %0,25 art\u0131\u015fla 98,25 yak\u0131n\u0131ndayd\u0131. Warsh daha \u00f6nce g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemi\u015f ve Fed\u2019in bilan\u00e7osundaki \u201c**niceliksel gev\u015feme**\u201dye (Quantitative Easing: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan tahvil alarak sisteme para vermesi) kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair resm\u00ee onay vermemesi de ABD Dolar\u0131na talebi art\u0131rd\u0131. Washington, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in Tahran\u2019la ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere Pakistan\u2019a gidece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Grafikte AUD\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama: Son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 0,7072 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve 0,69 b\u00f6lgesinden gelen y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini korudu. 0,6585 taban\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015f trend \u00e7izgisi, 0,6922 civar\u0131ndaki referans seviyesiyle birlikte hareketi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: Fiyat\u0131n momentumunu\/g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 60,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Destek seviyeleri 0,7072 ve 0,6922; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,7222 ve 0,7300 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) da benzer \u015fekilde beklemede kalarak politika faizini (cash rate: gecelik hedef faiz) k\u00fcresel talepte zay\u0131flama endi\u015feleriyle %4,10\u2019da tuttu. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli ihracat kalemlerinden demir cevheri, son d\u00f6nemde 1 ton ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek (bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin ard\u0131ndan ilk kez) Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu durum, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llardaki emtia iyimserli\u011fiyle ters y\u00f6nde.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, AUD\/USD paritesini 0,6650 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta tutuyor; ge\u00e7mi\u015fte konu\u015fulan 0,7150 seviyelerinden uzak. Eski destek olan 0,6922 art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir **diren\u00e7**e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek 2025 sonundan bu yana y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Merkez bankalar\u0131ndaki belirsizlik nedeniyle **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, prim toplamak amac\u0131yla **opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131**n\u0131n (premium: opsiyon bedeli) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Paritenin iki seviye aras\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan **k\u0131sa strangle** (short strangle: farkl\u0131 iki fiyattan put ve call opsiyonu satmak) stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeyi (time decay: vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) kullan\u0131r; iki merkez bankas\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ad\u0131m atmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha etkili olur.<\/p>\n
Ancak 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemindeki dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc unutmamak gerekir; bu, kurlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Yakla\u015fan ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinde (non-farm payrolls: tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz, mevcut banttan kolayca k\u0131r\u0131lma yaratabilir. Bu, bantta kalmaya dayal\u0131 t\u00fcrev stratejileri i\u00e7in temel risk olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: AUD\/USD 0,7150\u2019de %0,35 gerilerken, Warsh\u2019un Fed onay\u0131 ve \u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Teknikte trend korunuyor; RBA beklemede, bant ve oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45110"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45110\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}