Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda %0,14 y\u00fckselerek 49.700\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,13 artarak 7.160\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131. Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri ise ABD a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde %0,27 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 26.820 seviyesine geldi.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki hareket, haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes bitmeden \u00f6nce ABD ile ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in \u0130slamabad\u2019a bir heyet g\u00f6nderece\u011fi beklentisiyle geldi. Donald Trump, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yeniden ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in Pakistan\u2019a gidece\u011fini; bunun Sal\u0131 gecesi ya da \u00c7ar\u015famba sabah\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Wall Street normal seansta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapand\u0131. Dow Jones %0,01 geriledi, S&P 500 %0,24 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Nasdaq 100 %0,26 de\u011fer kaybetti. Hafta sonu yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilim, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji hisseleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. Broadcom ve Meta %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde gerilerken Microsoft, Nvidia ve Alphabet %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Trump, bu hafta sona erecek ate\u015fkesin bitimine kadar anla\u015fma sa\u011flanmazsa Tahran ile ate\u015fkesi uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da anla\u015fma kesinle\u015fene kadar kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve enflasyon (fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyinde art\u0131\u015f) riskini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda anla\u015fma ihtimaline dair umutla vadeli i\u015flemlerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak ate\u015fkesin bu hafta bitecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok hassas. Bu tablo, \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken bir alan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (VIX), \u015fu s\u0131ralar 18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu seviye ge\u00e7en ay 14 civar\u0131ndaki diplerden yukar\u0131da olsa da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olma riskini tam yans\u0131tm\u0131yor olabilir. VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ya da VIX\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131 borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF; borsada hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) benzer \u00fcr\u00fcnler, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler bozulursa sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasadaki korkunun artmas\u0131yla VIX\u2019in s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi bir \u201cdarbo\u011faz\u201d (kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) risk alt\u0131ndayken, her t\u0131rmanma enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiler. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; bu seviye 2025 sonundaki tedarik zinciri (\u00fcretimden sevkiyata uzanan tedarik a\u011f\u0131) endi\u015felerinden beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. XLE veya USO gibi enerji ETF\u2019lerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m opsiyonu \u201cspread\u201dleri (ayn\u0131 varl\u0131kta farkl\u0131 fiyatlardan iki opsiyonla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) daha fazla fiyat \u015fokundan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015f, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentilerini belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flatt\u0131. CME Group verilerine g\u00f6re Haziran\u2019da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 son haftalarda %75\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, faize duyarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde (faiz y\u00fckselince de\u011ferleme bask\u0131s\u0131 artan \u015firketler) \u00f6zellikle Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fc takip eden QQQ ETF \u00fczerinden sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) gibi koruyucu ad\u0131mlar\u0131n daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Genel piyasada uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar) i\u00e7in vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki mevcut sakinlik, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma eklemek i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde vadesi dolacak S&P 500 (SPY) veya Dow Jones (DIA) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir. Ama\u00e7 piyasaya kar\u015f\u0131 bahis oynamak de\u011fil, olas\u0131 olumsuz jeopolitik s\u00fcrprizlerin yarataca\u011f\u0131 kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flemlere ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fckseldi; \u0130ran-ABD ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme \u00fcmidi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 toparlad\u0131. Ancak ate\u015fkesin sona ermesi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle petrol\u00fc 95$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutup Fed indirim beklentilerini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. VIX\/opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45109\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}