ECB Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Luis de Guindos, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u00f6zel krediyi finansal istikrar i\u00e7in bir risk olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re de Guindos, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde y\u00fcksek piyasa de\u011ferlemeleri ve gev\u015fek maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 da (kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi) risk kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak s\u0131ralad\u0131.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, para politikas\u0131 (faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair net bir i\u015faret vermedi\u011fi i\u00e7in euroda belirgin bir hareket yaratmad\u0131. Haber yaz\u0131l\u0131rken EUR\/USD %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1760 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu; ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Avrupal\u0131 yetkililer \u00f6zel kredi ve y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemeler konusunda risklere dikkat \u00e7ekerken piyasan\u0131n sessiz kalmas\u0131, rehavet i\u015fareti. Rehavet \u00e7o\u011fu zaman oynakl\u0131kta art\u0131\u015f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi) \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu, olas\u0131 piyasa \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli korunma f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma sinyali.<\/p>\n
VSTOXX oynakl\u0131k endeksi \u015fu anda 13,8 civar\u0131nda; bu, \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviye. Bu nedenle opsiyonlar (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) g\u00f6rece ucuz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k EURO STOXX 50 endeksi, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 (forward F\/K: \u015firketlerin beklenen k\u00e2rlar\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplanan de\u011ferleme oran\u0131) 15\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu seviye, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fcst\u00fcnde ve piyasan\u0131n pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u201cpiyasadan beklenen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) ile y\u00fcksek de\u011ferleme birle\u015fince, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma al\u0131m\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2021\u2019de merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon risklerine ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n piyasada yeterince ciddiye al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2022\u2019de sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (agresif rate hikes) fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131-yukar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ayarlamaya (repricing: varl\u0131klar\u0131n yeni ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131) zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu t\u00fcr \u00f6rnekler, resm\u00ee uyar\u0131lar\u0131n piyasada g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen risklere erken i\u015faret edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00f6nemli Avrupa endekslerinde vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (long-dated put: uzun vadeli, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 veya koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) kademeli pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Put spread kullan\u0131m\u0131 (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme y\u00f6ntemi) bu sigortan\u0131n maliyetini daha y\u00f6netilebilir k\u0131labilir. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa \u015firket tahvillerinde risk primini g\u00f6steren kredi spreadlerini izlemek gerekir. \u00d6rne\u011fin iTraxx Europe Crossover endeksi (yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyenin alt\u0131, daha riskli \u015firket tahvillerine dair kredi risk g\u00f6stergesi) belirgin \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa, risklerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ilk i\u015faret olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar sessiz ama ECB alarm veriyor: Guindos \u00f6zel kredi, y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemeler ve gev\u015fek maliyeyi risk g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Euro etkilenmedi; VSTOXX dipte, opsiyonlar ucuz\u2014d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 put sigortas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45108\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}