UOB stratejistleri, son dalgalanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY\u2019nin bir bant i\u00e7inde hareket etmesini bekliyor. Paritenin g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 158,50\u2013159,20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131, **momentum g\u00f6stergelerinin** (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00f6n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6stergeler) ise b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki de\u011ferlendirmede, kur 159,10 civar\u0131ndayken 158,20\u2013159,60 band\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY 158,54\u2013159,20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,11 art\u0131\u015fla 158,79\u2019dan kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
UOB, 1\u20133 haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde USD\/JPY\u2019nin 157,55\u2013160,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki tahminini koruyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6nceki cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert ve d\u00fczensiz fiyat hareketinin ard\u0131ndan de\u011fi\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n
Makale, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi bilgisini i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin yatay seyretmesi bekleniyorsa, **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u2014burada d\u00f6viz kurunun\u2014fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 157,55\u2013160,50 band\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan net bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyor. Yatay momentum g\u00f6stergeleri, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6n beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyonlar\u0131n (tek y\u00f6ne sert hareket bekleyen i\u015flemler) iyi sonu\u00e7 vermeyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu da **oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131** (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, genelde opsiyon satarak prim geliri hedeflemek) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 160,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmay\u0131 ve 157,55\u2019in alt\u0131nda **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Ama\u00e7, kur bu bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131k\u00e7a **prim** (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, piyasada beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren verilerle destekleniyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k **ima edilen oynakl\u0131k** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma oran\u0131) ge\u00e7en haftaki sert hareketler s\u0131ras\u0131nda %11\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn %8,7\u2019ye yak\u0131n. Bu, piyasan\u0131n art\u0131k yak\u0131n vadede b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani hareketleri fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum opsiyon satmay\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
2025 bahar\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcphesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert yen de\u011ferlenmesinde de benzer bir tablo olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. \u0130lk sert hareketlerin ard\u0131ndan parite \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birka\u00e7 hafta yatay bir d\u00f6neme girmi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, bu t\u00fcr sakinle\u015fmenin y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k sonras\u0131 tipik olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de \u015fimdilik bant hareketine i\u015faret ediyor. Son veride Japonya\u2019da **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,1 seviyesinde sabit kal\u0131rken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (**Fed**, ABD\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen kurum) faiz konusunda aceleci olmayaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Bu nedenle band\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131racak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu ortamda yenin ne sert de\u011fer kaybetmesi ne de h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: UOB, USD\/JPY\u2019de yatay seyir bekliyor. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i 158,50\u2013159,20, 1\u20133 haftada 157,55\u2013160,50 band\u0131 korunuyor; momentum zay\u0131f. \u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k %11\u2019den %8,7\u2019ye geriledi; opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45098"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45098\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}