Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), **teslimats\u0131z vadeli i\u015flem** (NDF: vade sonunda d\u00f6viz teslimi yap\u0131lmayan, sadece kur fark\u0131n\u0131n nakit olarak \u00f6dendi\u011fi forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) kurallar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetti. Buna g\u00f6re **yetkili bankalar\/arac\u0131 kurumlar** (authorised dealers) NDF sunabilecek; **ili\u015fkili taraf** (ayn\u0131 grup\/ortakl\u0131k yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7indeki \u015firketler) s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini **vadesini uzatabilecek** (roll over) ve **iptal edebilecek**; ayr\u0131ca **bire bir kar\u015f\u0131 koruma** (back-to-back hedging: al\u0131nan riskin ayn\u0131 tutarda ters bir i\u015flemle kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) yapabilecek.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fiklik sonras\u0131 **USD\/INR** (dolar\/rupi) %0,2 y\u00fckselerek **93,12** oldu. Son \u00fc\u00e7 haftada USD\/INR **92,40\u201393,40** band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
RBI Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sanjay Malhotra, 8 Nisan Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda **d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerine** (kur riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan forward, opsiyon gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) getirilen k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Hint rupisi, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Asya para birimleri i\u00e7inde en zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterenlerden.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin NDF piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131, piyasada **likiditeyi** (al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131n kolay yap\u0131labilmesi) art\u0131r\u0131p eri\u015fimi kolayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Rupinin yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde daha sakin seyretmesi, RBI\u2019nin sert kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha az endi\u015fe etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ad\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadede INR t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131na daha fazla kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te rupi zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %3\u2019ten fazla de\u011fer kaybetti. Verilere g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda \u015fimdiye kadar Hindistan hisselerinde **net 2,1 milyar dolar sat\u0131\u015f** yapt\u0131; bu da kur \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin **%7,2** gelmesi temel tabloya destek veriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan RBI\u2019nin getirdi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131tlamalara k\u0131yasla belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n geri ad\u0131m atmas\u0131, USD\/INR **92,40\u201393,40** band\u0131 korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece daha \u00e7ok piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na alan tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde okunabilir. RBI\u2019nin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini korumak i\u00e7in bu band\u0131 savunmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, **oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (volatility selling: kurun b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket etmeyece\u011fi beklentisiyle opsiyon satarak prim geliri hedeflemek) stratejilerinin daha cazip olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 banda \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc destek vermesiyle **opsiyon primi** (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) gerileyebilir. USD\/INR\u2019de **k\u0131sa straddle** (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu satmak; kurun bantta kalmas\u0131na oynar) gibi stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Gev\u015fetilen kurallar, **ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerini** (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminde bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri hedeflemek) de daha uygulanabilir hale getiriyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc **kur riskinden korunmay\u0131** (hedging: kur dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonu korumak) basitle\u015ftiriyor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n **repo faizi** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli politika faizi) %6,5 ile ABD **Fed fonlama faizi**ne (Fed Funds: bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik hedef faiz) %4,75\u2019e k\u0131yasla belirgin getiri avantaj\u0131 sunuyor. Artan likidite, **al\u0131\u015f-sat\u0131\u015f makas\u0131n\u0131** (bid-ask spread: al\u0131\u015f ve sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) daraltarak pozisyon a\u00e7ma-kapama maliyetini azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131ndaki genel g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimi izlenmeli. ABD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ana etken olmaya devam ederken, Fed\u2019den beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na\/uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faize meyilli) mesajlar gelmesi RBI\u2019nin yeni \u201crahat\u201d alan\u0131n\u0131 zorlayabilir. Bu d\u0131\u015f etken, rupinin istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in temel risk olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz RBI hamlesi! Teslimats\u0131z forward (NDF) kurallar\u0131 gev\u015fedi: yetkili kurumlara NDF, roll-over\/iptal ve back-to-back hedge izni. USD\/INR 93,12\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bant korunursa volatilite ve carry trade caziple\u015febilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45097\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}