G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 d\u00fc\u015ferek 79,00 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD Senatosu\u2019ndaki onay oturumu (aday\u0131n resmen g\u00f6reve uygun bulunmas\u0131 s\u00fcreci) \u00f6ncesinde, Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na aday g\u00f6sterilen Kevin Warsh nedeniyle sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (Faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine dair ipucu i\u00e7in Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (Siyasi etkiden uzak karar alma) korunup korunmayaca\u011f\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan takip ediliyor. Donald Trump, Fed\u2019i ve Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131 faizleri daha h\u0131zl\u0131 indirmedikleri i\u00e7in ele\u015ftirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Warsh\u2019\u0131n 30 Ocak\u2019taki adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce 121,60 dolar ile rekor seviyeye yak\u0131n bir noktay\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %30\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hareket, Warsh\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Niceliksel Gev\u015feme\u2019ye (Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan tahvil alarak sisteme para vermesi; halk aras\u0131nda \u201cparasal geni\u015fleme\u201d) kar\u015f\u0131 durmas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 tercihine ba\u011fland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Grafik taraf\u0131nda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama; son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) olan 77,04 dolar civar\u0131nda. Y\u00fckselen \u00fc\u00e7gen formasyonu (Fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketin yakla\u015fabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm) oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m durumunu g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k 54 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 81,52 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 85,46 dolar; destek ise 76,50 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 70,00 dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
XAG opsiyonlar\u0131nda (Belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) \u00f6n vadeli kontratlarda %45 ile 12 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir geli\u015fmeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Fiyatlama, son d\u00f6nemdeki dar banttan \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; 76,50\u201381,52 dolar band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015fan bir hareket \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (Opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) as\u0131l hedef, y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok oynakl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanacak pozisyon kurmak.<\/p>\n
Warsh\u2019\u0131n 30 Ocak\u2019ta aday g\u00f6sterilmesiyle piyasan\u0131n verdi\u011fi sert tepki unutulmamal\u0131. Rekora yak\u0131n 121,60 dolardan %30\u2019u a\u015fan sat\u0131\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar tercihi ve niceliksel gev\u015femeye kar\u015f\u0131 duru\u015funun bilinmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi. Bu \u00f6rnek, oturumda \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir duru\u015fun (Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya da s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) netle\u015fmesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin y\u00fcksek olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (Gelecekteki faiz beklentilerinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontratlar) piyasa 2026 i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerini tamamen fiyatlamaktan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (Enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu veri, Warsh\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 halinde s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (Faizi y\u00fcksek tutma ve likiditeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlama) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Oturumun sonucu iki uca a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fundan, uzun straddle veya strangle almak (Ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynama; y\u00f6n fark etmez) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. Bu strateji, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekette kazan\u00e7 \u015fans\u0131 verir; sonucun y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc bilmek gerekmez. \u00d6denen prim (Opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) ise riskin en fazla ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirler.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Warsh onay almak i\u00e7in beklenenden daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (Faiz indirimi ya da daha gev\u015fek politika e\u011filimi) bir ton kullan\u0131rsa, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131sa pozisyon kapanmas\u0131 (Short squeeze; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayanlar\u0131n zarar kesip al\u0131ma ge\u00e7mesiyle fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi) tetiklenebilir. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 81,52 dolardaki yatay direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ilk sinyali olur. B\u00f6yle bir hareket, 13 Mart zirvesi olan 85,46 dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 79 dolara gerilerken g\u00f6zler Warsh\u2019\u0131n Senato oturumunda: \u201c\u015fahin\u201d ton yeni sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 getirebilir. Opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k 12 ay zirvesinde; 76,50\u201381,52 band\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45096"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45096\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}