EUR\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 1,1785 civar\u0131nda hafif geriledi. Piyasalar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona ermesi beklenen 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes \u00f6ncesinde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimi fiyatl\u0131yor. Almanya ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ZEW anketleri (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve analistlerin beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00fcven endeksi) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. ABD\u2019de ise Mart ay\u0131 Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi (hane halk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli g\u00f6sterge) takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in acele etmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ancak Pakistan\u2019da Tahran\u2019la yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler bekledi\u011fini de ekledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ate\u015fkes s\u00fcresi dolarken geldi.<\/p>\n
Guardian\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tehdit alt\u0131ndayken ABD ile m\u00fczakereyi kabul etmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Arak\u00e7i ise ABD\u2019nin \u201cate\u015fkesi ihlal etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin\u201d diplomatik s\u00fcreci zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair belirsizlik, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen para birimi) talebi destekledi ve bu da EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in parite zorland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi bildirildi. Barclays, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birlikte Haziran ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ECB, 2025\u2019te iki kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131. Ancak ABD\u2019de enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonun ana \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %2,9\u2019da kal\u0131rken, Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma sinyali verdi. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 faiz y\u00f6n\u00fc izlemesi), EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,07 seviyesine (paritenin 1,07 civar\u0131 fiyat b\u00f6lgesi) iten ana unsur oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Haziran 2026 vadeli 1,06 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar) paritenin y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, jeopolitik gerilimin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesi veya ABD istihdam verilerinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde zay\u0131f gelmesi sert bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi do\u011furabilir. Her iki y\u00f6nde de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in May\u0131s vadeli uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin faydalanma) stratejisi kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergesi) verisi ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi Nisan enflasyonunun \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini (erken a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk hesap) \u00f6nemli tetikleyiciler olacak. ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %2,1 tahmininin \u00fczerinde gelmesi, EUR\/USD i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131labilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avrupa enflasyonunda beklenmedik bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, ECB\u2019yi daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha meyilli) bir duru\u015fa iterek al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) stratejilerini destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik e\u015fikte EUR\/USD 1,1785\u2019e geri \u00e7ekildi: Orta Do\u011fu ate\u015fkesi belirsizli\u011fi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. ZEW ve ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar izlenecek. Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45078\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}