Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 4.825 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yeni jeopolitik riskleri (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 gerginlik ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali) fiyatlad\u0131. B\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik ve diplomasi (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler) konusundaki belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyatlar sakin kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130ran, \u0130slamabad\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (gemi giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiilen engelleyen bask\u0131) sonland\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Pakistan\u2019da ABD ile bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine kat\u0131lmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. Yetkililer karar al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi ABD\u2019nin \u201cate\u015fkesi ihlal etmeye devam etti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yleyerek yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcnde engel oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bozulabilece\u011fi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda yeniden blokaj (ge\u00e7i\u015fi engelleme) ihtimali endi\u015fesiyle y\u00fckseldi. Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, enflasyon beklentilerini (ileride fiyatlar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi) y\u00fckseltebilir ve faiz indirimlerini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi) daha az olas\u0131 hale getirebilir. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klara (elde tutarken faiz kazand\u0131rmayan; alt\u0131n gibi) talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi var. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u2019\u0131n Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,4 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; \u015eubat\u2019ta art\u0131\u015f %0,6 olmu\u015ftu. Beklentiden zay\u0131f bir veri, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir ve dolar baz\u0131nda fiyatlanan alt\u0131na destek verebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.825 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken piyasa, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca tercih edilen varl\u0131k) deste\u011fi ile y\u00fcksek faizlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadede net y\u00f6n tahmini yapmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ana risk, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin tamamen kopmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda tansiyonun y\u00fckselmesi. Benzer d\u00f6nemlerde (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2019\u2019da) petrol arz\u0131nda kesinti tehdidi bile g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak alt\u0131na yarayabiliyor. Yeniden bir blokaj, alt\u0131n\u0131 yeni zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) korunma (hedge; riski azaltma) ama\u00e7l\u0131 tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in temel olumsuz unsur, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131. Son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) enflasyonun %3,1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle piyasa, bu y\u0131l beklenen faiz indirimlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, faiz getirmeyen bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini (ayn\u0131 paray\u0131 faize koyunca ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan getiri) art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi bu denge i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir s\u0131nav. Verinin %1,4 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde gelmesi, ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; bu da dolar\u0131 destekleyip alt\u0131n\u0131 geriletebilir. Tersi durumda, yani zay\u0131f veri, faiz indirimi beklentilerini canland\u0131rarak alt\u0131na destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, sadece y\u00f6ne de\u011fil oynakl\u0131\u011fa (volatilite; fiyat\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) dayanan stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Uzun vadeli straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri; iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) almak, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca 2025 bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) anla\u015fma \u00f6ncesi sert y\u00fckselip anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut tablo buna benziyor. Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ilerler ve alt\u0131n sakinle\u015firse, iron condor gibi stratejilerle opsiyon primi satmak (piyasadan prim toplayarak yatay seyir beklemek) k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir. Bu, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n mevcut belirsizli\u011fi abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda y\u00f6n arayanlar dikkat: XAU\/USD 4.825 dolarda. Orta Do\u011fu riski destek, y\u00fcksek faiz bask\u0131. \u0130ran-Pakistan-ABD diplomasisi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz endi\u015fesi izleniyor; ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 belirleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45075\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}