GBP\/USD pazartesi %0,1 y\u00fckselerek 1,3530 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ge\u00e7en haftaki 1,3600 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki zirveden geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Kur, nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 1,3160 civar\u0131ndaki diplerden toparland\u0131ktan sonra 1,3500 ile 1,3600 band\u0131nda hareket ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131 jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler y\u00f6nlendiriyor. \u0130ki haftal\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin \u00e7ar\u015famba gecesi sona ermesi bekleniyor ve uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal\u201d oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. ABD\u2019nin Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde \u0130ran\u2019a ait bir y\u00fck gemisine el koymas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekteki teslimat i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) %6\u2019dan fazla s\u0131\u00e7rayarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fcndem: \u0130ngiltere istihdam raporu, ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve Fed ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 olarak Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Senato oturumu. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere ve ABD\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ile \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: ekonomik faaliyetin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan anket) izlenecek. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD 15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte 1,3534 seviyesindeydi; g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 1,3485 ve Stochastic RSI 18,85. (Stochastic RSI: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge.) G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte 1,3535\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 1,3421, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 1,3358 ve Stochastic RSI 93,74. (93,74 gibi y\u00fcksek de\u011ferler genelde \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d yani y\u00fckseli\u015fin k\u0131sa vadede yorulmu\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder.)<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3530 civar\u0131nda yatayla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki diplerden gelen y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte Stochastic g\u00f6stergesi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mda; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun (fiyat\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan h\u0131z\u0131n) gerildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu teredd\u00fct, net bir tetikleyici (fiyat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde hareket ettirecek haber\/veri) gelmeden yeni al\u0131m pozisyonu a\u00e7may\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ana odak, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin biti\u015fi ve bunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilimlerde benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, Brent petrol iki haftada %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. WTI\u2019\u0131n 89 dolara s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmamas\u0131 \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p dolara\/tahvile y\u00f6nelmesi) hareketini tetikleyebilir; bu da dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip GBP\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201ciki ihtimalli\u201d risk nedeniyle (sonu\u00e7 ya uzat\u0131l\u0131r ya uzat\u0131lmaz) b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Strangle almak (ayn\u0131 vadede, biri kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde \u201ccall\/al\u0131m\u201d, di\u011feri piyasan\u0131n alt\u0131nda \u201cput\/sat\u0131m\u201d opsiyonu almak) etkili olabilir. Bu yap\u0131, ate\u015fkes haberinin ard\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareketten faydalan\u0131r; y\u00f6n tahmini zorunlu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskin yan\u0131nda, \u0130ngiltere ve ABD\u2019den yo\u011fun veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 var. Tarihsel olarak \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE verisi, GBP\/USD\u2019de ilk bir saatte 50-80 pip (pip: kurda en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck standart fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; GBP\/USD\u2019de genelde 0,0001) oynakl\u0131k yaratabiliyor. Bu haftaki veri, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda al\u0131m pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 kazanc\u0131 korumak \u00f6nemli. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama olan 1,3420 civar\u0131na yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 koruyucu put opsiyonu al\u0131nabilir. (Koruyucu put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan \u201csigorta\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.) B\u00f6ylece jeopolitik gerilim artarsa veya \u0130ngiltere verileri zay\u0131f gelirse a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tersine, ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,3600 direncinin (diren\u00e7: fiyat\u0131n zor a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Buna haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in bull call spread (kademeli al\u0131m opsiyonu stratejisi: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak) kullan\u0131labilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynar; beklenti bozulursa zarar belirli bir seviyede kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GBP\/USD 1,3530\u2019da yatay; 1,3500-1,3600 band\u0131nda ivme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinde: uzat\u0131lmazsa WTI 89$ ile riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Veri g\u00fcndemi yo\u011fun; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45074","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45074"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45074\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45074"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45074"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45074"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}