AUD\/USD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 gerileyerek 0,7180 civar\u0131na indi; a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta 0,7115\u2019e yak\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu (gap: fiyat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re arada i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeden daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) olu\u015ftu. Sonras\u0131nda kay\u0131plar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131 ancak cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 0,7220 civar\u0131ndaki zirvenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck g\u00f6vdeli mumlar (mum grafi\u011finde karars\u0131zl\u0131k) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Odak, \u00e7ar\u015famba gecesi sona ermesi beklenen ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinde. Ba\u015fkan Trump uzatman\u0131n \u201cson derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD, Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir \u0130ran y\u00fck gemisine el koydu; \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 misilleme tehdidinde bulundu ve ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma plan\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130slamabad\u2019daki ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmaya dair kesinle\u015fmi\u015f bir plan olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen bu hafta g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Piyasalar ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 daha sakin bir sonuca g\u00f6re pozisyonlanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) vadeli petrol (WTI: ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6sterge fiyat\u0131; vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme: ileride teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn fiyat belirlenen kontrat) gecelik i\u015flemlerde %6\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri (vadeli i\u015flem: piyasalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair beklentiyi yans\u0131tan kontratlar) Avrupa seans\u0131na girerken dengelendi; Avustralya Dolar\u0131 dahil riskle birlikte hareket eden para birimleri (risk duyarl\u0131: k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7lenen\/zay\u0131flayan) geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m buldu.<\/p>\n
Haftan\u0131n kritik verileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131: pazartesi IMF toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve Yeni Zelanda 1\u00c7 verileri, sal\u0131 ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, per\u015fembe \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/daralma sinyali) izlenecek. Grafik taraf\u0131nda AUD\/USD 0,7178\u2019de; destek 0,7138 civar\u0131nda. Daha uzun vadede 50 periyot EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 0,7009 ve 200 periyot EMA 0,6779 seviyesinde. Stokastik RSI (momentum g\u00f6stergesi: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 98,19 gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir de\u011ferde.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, haftan\u0131n ana riskini yani ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin \u00e7ar\u015famba sona ermesini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6rmezden geliyor. WTI 89 dolara s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi riskli varl\u0131klarda destek g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyadaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019den fazlas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor; buras\u0131 bir \u201cbo\u011faz\/\u015fi\u015fe a\u011fz\u0131\u201d noktas\u0131 (chokepoint: kapanmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde ticaret ve fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla etkileyen dar ge\u00e7i\u015f), \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kapatmakla tehdit etti\u011fi bir hat. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 petrol\u00fc kolayca 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,7180 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviyesi bu senaryoyu yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. 2025\u2019te petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) bu t\u00fcr gerilimlerin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu uyumsuzluk nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak (put opsiyonu: belirli bir vadede belli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, ate\u015fkes bozulur ve jeopolitik risk yeniden fiyatlan\u0131rsa sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yol sunar. Opsiyon primi (prim: opsiyonu sat\u0131n alma bedeli) kadar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar ihtimali, sonucu iki u\u00e7ta \u015fekillenebilen (ikili\/binary) bu t\u00fcr belirsiz olaylarda \u00f6nem kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; VIX\u2019e benzer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler (VIX: piyasa korku endeksi) 14 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde, yani endi\u015fe s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Bu durum, Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu: fiyat her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket ederse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan yap\u0131) gibi yap\u0131larla \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n alma\u201d f\u0131rsat\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc son tarih sonras\u0131 iki y\u00f6nde sert hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, b\u00f6yle bir pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunsa bile, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm temkini destekliyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 98,19 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mda; bu, son y\u00fckseli\u015fin yoruldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir. Bu nedenle, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltme (pullback: k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilme) olmadan uzun (al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 savunmak zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar ate\u015fkes riskini g\u00f6rmezden mi geliyor? AUD\/USD 0,7180\u2019e gerilerken petrol WTI 89 dolara s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz tehdidi b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Teknikte ivme zay\u0131f, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m sinyali; put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45071\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}