Commerzbank analisti Dr Henry Hao, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na petrol \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar deniz ge\u00e7idi) kaynakl\u0131 enerji arz\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in bir\u00e7ok Asya ekonomisine g\u00f6re daha kolay y\u00f6netebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Notta, \u00c7in\u2019in ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131 (rafine edilmemi\u015f petrol al\u0131m\u0131) farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelere yaymas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejik petrol stoklar\u0131 ve GSYH (\u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) ba\u015f\u0131na daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Asya genelinde \u00fclkeler stratejik petrol rezervlerini (devletin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu petrol stoklar\u0131) kullan\u0131yor, ancak sonu\u00e7lar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Japonya, G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayvan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kamu stoklar\u0131 varken; Hindistan, Tayland ve Filipinler\u2019in stoklar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve uzun s\u00fcren bir arz kesintisine (tedarikte uzun s\u00fcreli aksama) daha a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in, k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat ve arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 (ani fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve tedarik sorunu) yumu\u015fatmak i\u00e7in rezervleri ve politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Devam eden jeopolitik oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (siyasi risk kaynakl\u0131 dalgalanma) bu k\u0131sa vadeli korumay\u0131 zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in, tedariki \u00e7e\u015fitlendirerek Orta Do\u011fu ham petrol\u00fcne ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131; bu pay\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck Asya ekonomileri aras\u0131nda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu s\u00f6yleniyor. Rapora g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in ham petrol tedarikinde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun pay\u0131 2022\u2019den beri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in enerji kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 (farkl\u0131 enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n toplam i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131) da de\u011fi\u015fiyor: yenilenebilir enerji (g\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczg\u00e2r gibi) artarken, GSYH ba\u015f\u0131na fosil yak\u0131t t\u00fcketimi azal\u0131yor. Etkilerin sekt\u00f6re g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi; oynakl\u0131k s\u00fcrerse ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve kimya sekt\u00f6rlerinin daha \u00e7ok zorlanabilece\u011fi not ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011fazdan kaynaklanabilecek bir arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan korunma (hedge: riske kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alma) i\u00e7in Brent ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) net uzun pozisyon veya al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) da kullan\u0131labilir. 2024 ve 2025\u2019te b\u00f6lgesel gerilimlerin fiyatlar\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil ge\u00e7i\u015fte ya\u015fanacak bir kesinti, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte an\u0131nda etki yarat\u0131r. Bu, b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 en do\u011frudan y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in yap\u0131sal dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, kom\u015fular\u0131nda olmayan bir koruma sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde daha az sars\u0131lan varl\u0131k\/piyasa) konumuna getiriyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta \u00c7in Ulusal G\u0131da ve Stratejik Rezervler \u0130daresi, rezervlerin net ithalat\u0131n 90 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131; bu, fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131sa vadeli koruma anlam\u0131na geliyor. Buna ek olarak, \u015eubat 2026\u2019ya kadar yenilenebilir elektrik \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\u0131ldan y\u0131la) %25 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgisi, \u00c7in\u2019in g\u00f6rece ekonomik istikrar\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak etkinin \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7inde e\u015fit olmayabilece\u011fi de belirtiliyor. Analiz, enerji maliyetlerine \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 olan ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve kimya sekt\u00f6rlerinde zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, \u00c7in sanayi kimyasallar\u0131na odaklanan ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon: hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak ya da \u015eanghay veya Hong Kong\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6ren b\u00fcy\u00fck havayolu ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) alarak ifade edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, volatilite (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. FTSE China A50 ve Hang Seng endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) risklere g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Straddle veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla opsiyon kombinasyonu; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler) ile uzun vega (volatilite y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e de\u011fer kazanan pozisyon) kurmak, y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun olas\u0131 sert hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski Asya\u2019y\u0131 sarsarken \u00c7in nas\u0131l \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d oluyor? Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re \u00e7e\u015fitlenen petrol ithalat\u0131, 90 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fan rezervler ve d\u00fc\u015fen fosil yo\u011funluk \u015foklar\u0131 yumu\u015fat\u0131yor; baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45069\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}